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Thread: Good fold?

  1. #1
    bambini's Avatar
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    Default Good fold?

    I've just come to the bubble a 10-seater SNG, and my opponents are extremely passive. I've been running these guys over for the last few hands. Earlier, I had AQs and ran into KK, and so I've been clawing back from a short stack. Now we come to this hand. My reads on the guy are that he's tight-passive, so an all-in raise surprised me.

    Table #49301759 - STT # 27710049
    Starting Hand #2294884028
    Start time of hand: 04 Mar 2013 21:07:29
    Last Hand #2294883004
    Game Type: HOLD'EM
    Limit Type: NO LIMIT
    Table Type: TOURNAMENT
    Money Type: TOURNAMENT CHIPS
    Blinds are now 500 / 1,000
    Button is at seat 2
    Seat 3: badabingbambini - 14,500
    Seat 4: MAGPIEE - 25,050
    Seat 6: nvieira74 - 12,950
    Seat 8: marcus12 - 23,525
    Seat 10: EdgeofChaos - 23,975
    Shuffling Deck
    Moving Button to seat 3
    badabingbambini posts ante of 100
    MAGPIEE posts ante of 100
    nvieira74 posts ante of 100
    marcus12 posts ante of 100
    EdgeofChaos posts ante of 100
    Pot sizes: 500
    MAGPIEE posts small blind (500)
    nvieira74 posts big blind (1,000)
    Dealing Cards
    Dealing [K s][A d] to badabingbambini
    badabingbambini: bubble time!
    marcus12 folds
    EdgeofChaos folds
    badabingbambini raises to 3,000
    MAGPIEE folds
    nvieira74 calls 3,000
    Pot sizes: 7,000
    Dealing Flop [Q s][T d][4 c]
    nvieira74 checks
    badabingbambini bets 4,000
    nvieira74 raises to 9,850 (all-in)
    badabingbambini folds
    Pot sizes: 15,000
    nvieira74 doesn't show
    nvieira74 wins 15,000
    Seat 3: badabingbambini - 7,400
    Seat 4: MAGPIEE - 24,450
    Seat 6: nvieira74 - 20,850
    Seat 8: marcus12 - 23,425
    Seat 10: EdgeofChaos - 23,875
    End of Hand #2294884028


    Now, I had 2 overs and a gutshot, but sensed I was beat. However, this left me with 7 BBs and I was out a few hands later.

    Thoughts?
    "Never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city" - Coach Finstock, Teen Wolf

  2. #2
    Tim's Avatar
    Tim
    Tim is offline quintessential chopbuster
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    Default

    I would have shoved pre-flop.

  3. #3
    J_Verschueren's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim View Post
    I would have shoved pre-flop.
    Yes, seeing as the maximum amount you can get into play is BB's stack, this is a push. If you raise 3x and he pushes in, you're priced in to call anyway.

    If he was a little deeper or a little more inclined to play back at you, a case can be made for the small raise (you're still not going anywhere, obviously, unless BB is a complete and utter mouse).

    Also, make the raise smaller. At anything above blinds 50/100 2.5x will do the job just as well and just as often as 3x will, and they're still making an equity mistake by calling with a lolhand. It saves a little on having to fold to the re-steal (provided villain is still deep enough, you have to call the real shortstacks) and every chip adds up to that all-important fold-equity!! -keep that in mind.

  4. #4
    J_Verschueren's Avatar
    J_Verschueren is offline They call me "J"
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    Quote Originally Posted by J_Verschueren View Post
    <snip>
    (provided villain is still deep enough, you have to call the real shortstacks)
    On 2nd thought, that might not apply as much in a sit&go which pays 4 out of 10 (the calling the microstacks bit), which means the concept of minraise/fold or call might be inferior to push/fold as the payout, by default, is less top heavy. Trust PKR (I take it?) to come up with a sit&go which straddles the DoN and regular sit&go format.

  5. #5
    RyckyRych's Avatar
    RyckyRych is offline Retired Micro Grinder
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    Shove preflop. One reason why is because of exactly what happened here. You c-bet, the guy shoves, and you are left with incredible odds to call, even on the bubble. Generally with antes 10% or larger you should almost always shove preflop with up to about 14 or so BBs in your stack. Having AK is an even better reason to do so as that is a hand that would rather guarantee you see all five cards of the flop rather than just three and then guess whether or not you wanna see the other two... like here.

    Maximize your FE and get it in, preferably fast and first.

    As played? Well, you may have to fold even with the odds you suspect you are getting here because of ICM. Are we sure we have 10 good outs? Hard to say. He could have AQ or KQ or KJ or even a set of fours. He might have AK, though a little unlikely since we do too. AJ is possible. TT is possible. Lets say on average we have 9 good outs.

    We are getting almost 3:1 odds here with two cards to come. I'm not sure how strong ICM is here with 4 pay/5 left but its there. One thing that leans us more to calling is the fact that we are against the other short stack. If we win we are guaranteed equity (the bubble breaks). Still, is the bubble itself enough to make us fold? Nine outs twice is roughly 36% to win, pot lays us near 3:1 (we'll say its 27%)... ICM might be strong enough to make us need to 2:1 (33%) or even 35% to win to make up for the bubble factor, but I think we have enough outs on average (9) to win. Its ugly, but you may have to call. Its pretty close though.

    If for whatever reason you think you have less than 9 or even 8 good outs on average, then fold. Shoving preflop is just so much easier.
    I do a new thing now. Hidden Content

  6. #6
    Queso's Avatar
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    Default Good fold?

    Yes, 14 bigs, , shorthanded, large antes, shove pre.

  7. #7
    bambini's Avatar
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    Good to hear a clear consensus :)

    I always work on the general rule of thumb that I start shoving preflop when I get to less than 10 bigs, so it's interesting to hear that the better play once the antes kick in is to shove with 14 or less.

    And you're right, Rycky, that I probably didn't have 10 good outs. Although this villain was a tight player, I couldn't altogether rule out him holding QT or 44, let alone a much narrower range like AQ or AT. What I am certain of is that by the flop I was behind. I'd be VERY surprised if he was capable of an all-in bluff.

    J, It was indeed a PKR game. Their 10-seater prize structure is odd, as are their starting stacks - 10k chips with 8 minute blinds starting at 50/100.
    "Never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city" - Coach Finstock, Teen Wolf

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