When to Hit in Blackjack: Mastering Basic Strategy Decisions
Knowing when to hit in blackjack is the difference between playing with a sub-1% house edge and giving up unnecessary equity every session. Optimal hit-or-stand decisions are not based on instinct, but on dealer bust probabilities, hand composition, and table rules. This article breaks down when hitting mathematically improves expected value, when standing is correct despite weak totals, and how modern rule variations change optimal play.
Understanding Hit or Stand Blackjack Decisions
Hit or stand blackjack decisions represent the most fundamental strategic choices in the game. When to hit or stand in blackjack is essential to reducing the house edge and making mathematically sound decisions. Hitting means requesting an additional card from the dealer, while standing means keeping your current hand total and ending your turn. These decisions directly impact hand outcomes, with optimal play reducing house edge from approximately 2% (intuitive play) to 0.5% (perfect basic strategy).
The Mathematics Behind Hitting
Hitting decisions rely on probability calculations that compare bust risk to the potential for improvement. With a hard 12 (no ace counted as 11), nine card ranks (2-10) improve the hand, four ranks (10-K) create strong totals, while four ranks (A-4) create weak totals. Against dealer weak upcards (2-6), standing exploits dealer bust probability (35-42%) despite holding marginal totals.
Optimal hitting strategy reduces long-term expected losses by approximately 1.5-2% compared to intuitive play, representing the difference between sustainable recreational play and rapid bankroll depletion in typical sessions.
Unless otherwise noted, probability ranges in this article assume multi-deck games with the dealer standing on soft 17.
How Many Times Can You Hit in Blackjack
How many times you hit in blackjack has no fixed limit beyond reaching 21 or busting (exceeding 21). Players may hit repeatedly until satisfied with their total or until busting.
Most hands resolve within 1-3 hits. Five-card hands without busting occur approximately 1.4% of dealt hands. Six-card hands occur roughly 0.15%, while seven+ card hands represent statistical anomalies (<0.02%).
When to Hit or Stand in Blackjack
When to hit or stand in blackjack depends on three variables only: your hand total, whether the hand is hard or soft, and the dealer’s upcard. Optimal decisions are derived from expected-value calculations that balance bust risk against the dealer’s probability of making a strong hand.
Hard Hands (No Ace or Ace Counted as 1)
Hard hands follow fixed thresholds because every hit carries bust risk.
- Hard 8 or less: Always hit (no meaningful bust risk).
- Hard 9:
- Double vs dealer 3–6
- Hit vs dealer 2, 7–Ace
- Hard 10:
- Double vs dealer 2–9
- Hit vs dealer 10–Ace
- Hard 11:
- Double vs dealer 2–10
- Hit vs dealer Ace (unless double-after-split rules allow doubling)
- Hard 12:
- Stand vs dealer 4–6
- Hit vs dealer 2–3, 7–Ace
- Hard 13–16:
- Stand vs dealer 2–6
- Hit vs dealer 7–Ace
- Hard 17 or higher: Always stand (bust risk outweighs improvement potential).
These rules exploit the sharp divide in dealer bust probability: 35–43% for dealer 2–6 versus 12–26% for dealer 7–Ace.
Soft Hands (Ace Counted as 11)
Soft hands allow aggressive hitting because the ace can revert to a value of 1.
- Soft 13–17:
- Hit vs dealer 2, 7–Ace
- Double vs dealer 3–6 (when allowed)
- Soft 18:
- Stand vs dealer 2, 7–8
- Hit vs dealer 9–Ace
- Double vs dealer 3–6
- Soft 19 or higher: Always stand.
Soft hands should never be treated like equivalent hard totals. Soft 17 is a mandatory hit, while hard 17 is always a stand.
Core Hit-or-Stand Rule
Stand when the dealer is statistically more likely to bust than you are. Hit when improving your hand is more probable than the dealer failing.
This principle explains every correct hit-or-stand decision in blackjack and eliminates reliance on intuition or “feel.”
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When to Stand in Blackjack
When to stand in blackjack involves recognizing situations where additional cards create more risk than reward potential.
Dealer Bust Probability by Upcard
Understanding dealer bust rates informs standing decisions. Bust probability increases non-linearly with each additional point, which is why hitting thresholds change sharply after a hard 15.
| Dealer Upcard | Bust Probability |
|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% |
| 3 | 37.60% |
| 4 | 40.30% |
| 5 | 42.90% |
| 6 | 42.10% |
| 7 | 26.20% |
| 8 | 23.90% |
| 9 | 23.30% |
| 10 | 21.40% |
| Ace | 11.70% |
Dealer upcards 2-6 create a 35-43% bust probability, justifying standing on marginal player totals (12-16) to exploit the dealer’s weakness. By contrast, dealer upcards 7–Ace produce only a 12–26% bust probability, requiring aggressive player improvement through hitting.
Probability models published by the Georgia Institute of Technology (2023) show that dealer bust rates and expected value outcomes are directly influenced by dealer upcard strength, confirming why optimal hit-or-stand decisions shift sharply between dealer 2–6 and 7–Ace scenarios.
Standing with Soft Hands
Soft 19–21: Always stand (strong totals).
Soft 18: Stand vs dealer 2, 7–8; hit vs dealer 9–Ace; double vs dealer 3–6.
Soft 17 or Less: Never stand; ace flexibility allows risk-free hitting.
Hit or Stand on 16
Hit or stand on 16 is blackjack’s most discussed strategic decision, occurring frequently and causing significant player confusion.
Hard 16 vs Dealer 7-Ace: Always Hit
Against dealer strong upcards (7-Ace), hitting hard on a 16 reduces expected losses despite a high bust probability (approximately 62%). Mathematical analysis:
Standing on Hard 16 vs Dealer 10:
- Dealer makes 17+: approximately 77% (player loses)
- Dealer busts: approximately 23% (player wins)
- Expected value: −54%
Hitting on Hard 16 vs Dealer 10:
- Player makes 17-21: approximately 30%
- Player busts: approximately 62%
- Expected value: −52%
Hitting reduces expected loss from 54% to 52%, a meaningful 2% improvement despite a counterintuitive feel. These expected value comparisons assume flat betting and do not account for bet-sizing adjustments.
Over a 100-hand session, consistently standing instead of hitting on hard 16 against a dealer 10 costs roughly two additional betting units compared to optimal play. Over time, this single decision error compounds faster than any other hit-or-stand mistake in blackjack.
Hard 16 vs Dealer 2-6: Always Stand
Against dealer weak upcards, standing on hard 16 exploits dealer bust probability:
Hard 16 vs Dealer 6:
- Dealer busts: 42%
- Dealer makes 17-21: 58%
- Standing EV: -16%
- Hitting EV: -22%
Standing improves the expected value by 6%, a substantial edge that justifies counterintuitive passivity with weak hands.
Composition-Dependent 16s
Advanced players apply composition adjustments: three-card 16 (10-3-3) vs dealer 10 slightly favors hitting; two-card 16 (10-6) vs dealer 10 slightly favors surrender when available. These create 0.1-0.2% EV variations.
Blackjack Stand or Bust Scenarios
Blackjack stand or bust decisions involve recognizing when the bust probability outweighs the potential improvement.
Bust Probability by Hand Total
Understanding bust rates informs hitting decisions:
- Hard 12: 31% bust probability (hitting draws 10-K)
- Hard 13: 39% bust probability
- Hard 14: 46% bust probability
- Hard 15: 54% bust probability
- Hard 16: 62% bust probability
- Hard 17: 69% bust probability
- Hard 18: 77% bust probability
- Hard 19: 85% bust probability
- Hard 20: 92% bust probability
These probabilities demonstrate why hitting hard on 17+ becomes statistically untenable, even with the dealer’s strong upcards.
Risk-Reward Analysis
Optimal hitting balances bust risk against dealer strength. High bust risk with weak dealer (hard 15 vs dealer 6): stand (42% dealer bust outweighs 54% player bust). High bust risk with a strong dealer (hard 15 vs. dealer 10): hit (21% dealer busts insufficient). Moderate bust risk: the dealer’s upcard determines the decision.
When to Hit or Stay in Blackjack
When to hit or stay in blackjack (stand is synonymous with stay) follows basic strategy charts optimized through computer simulation.
Basic Strategy Chart Summary
A comprehensive basic strategy incorporates thousands of possible hand combinations. Core principles:
- Player 8 or Less: Always hit
- Player 9: Double vs dealer 3-6; hit otherwise
- Player 10: Double vs dealer 2-9; hit vs dealer 10-Ace
- Player 11: Double vs dealer 2-10; hit vs dealer Ace (some double all)
- Player 12: Hit vs dealer 2-3, 7-Ace; stand vs dealer 4-6
- Player 13-16: Hit vs dealer 7-Ace; stand vs dealer 2-6
- Player 17+: Always stand
- Soft 13-17: Hit vs dealer 2, 7-Ace; double vs dealer 3-6 (specific totals vary)
- Soft 18: Hit vs dealer 9-Ace; stand vs dealer 2, 7-8; double vs dealer 3-6
- Soft 19+: Always stand
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Rule Variations Impact
Dealer hits soft 17 increases dealer strength by 0.2%, requiring more aggressive hitting. Surrender offers an alternative to hitting hard on 15-16 vs. the dealer’s 10 or Ace. Double after split encourages splitting marginal pairs.
How Table Rules Change Hit Decisions
| Rule Variation | House Edge Change | Hit Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Dealer hits soft 17 | 0.20% | Hit more often |
| Late surrender allowed | −0.08% | Fewer forced hits |
| Six-deck vs eight-deck | 0.02% | Marginally tighter |
Advanced Hitting Considerations
Beyond basic strategy, advanced players incorporate card counting adjustments, psychological discipline, and situational awareness to refine hitting decisions and extract additional edge from optimal play.
Card Counting Impact
Card counters adjust basic strategy based on true count. Positive counts (10-rich) favor standing more on hard 12-16 vs dealer 2-6. Negative counts (10-poor) favor hitting more aggressively. Count-dependent adjustments create an additional edge of 0.5-1.5%.
Psychological Factors
Optimal hitting requires discipline. Loss aversion causes excessive standing on hard 12-16 vs dealer 7-Ace. The gambler’s fallacy incorrectly assumes that previous losses reduce the probability of a current loss. Results-oriented thinking invalidates correct decisions.
Professional players developing comprehensive knowledge often consult detailed resources, such as blackjack strategy guides, that cover optimal play across rule variations and specific game conditions.
Perfecting Hit-Stand Fundamentals
Mastering when to hit in blackjack requires understanding the mathematical foundations of optimal strategy, disciplined application regardless of short-term results, and recognizing that perfect basic strategy serves as the minimum baseline for serious play rather than advanced technique.
Whether playing recreationally or professionally, optimal hitting decisions separate players: disciplined strategy minimizes the house edge, while intuitive play donates unnecessary equity. The 1.5-2% difference between optimal and suboptimal hitting translates to meaningful bankroll preservation over extended sessions.
Please play responsibly. 21+, T&Cs apply.