An Introduction to Pot Odds

Put simply, pot odds means is there enough in the pot to call a bet. For example, you get to see a flop and it looks great, all you need is one more heart to make a flush. Then a player bets, "Oh no, I want to see one more card. Heck, I have the ace of hearts, the nut flush draw! Should I call"? When we first start playing poker, we’d just go with our feelings or an educated guess like, "Gosh, there is a bunch of money in the pot. I will call". It’s most likely we should have, but we are now here to step it up a notch.

The fundamental principle of playing a drawing hand in poker is that you need a pot big enough to call. When we have a flush draw or a straight draw we will make our hand on the next card almost 20% of the time (19% for flush and 17% for the straight draw). That is, 20% of the time we will make our desired hand and 80% we won’t. The ratio 20 to 80 can be expressed as odds of 4-to-1. Therefore, if the pot is $80 we can almost call a $20 bet to break-even. I say almost because we have to make a profit so, a call of $20 is appropriate when there is more than $80 in the pot.

Counting the Outs

The first step in calculating whether you have the correct odds to call a bet, is to know how many "outs" you have. We’ve already discussed what an "out" is in the “Poker Math & Statistics” lesson, but let’s quickly recap – an "out" is a card which will make your hand. For example, if you are on a flush draw, with four hearts in your hand, then there will be nine hearts (outs) remaining in the deck to give you a flush. Remember there are 13 cards in a suit, so this is easily worked out by 13 – 4 = 9. There are many ways to figure the actual odds of hitting one of these outs, and we’ll explain two. This first one does not require math, just use the handy chart below:

Table: Odds and Outs From the Flop and the Turn to the River

		Flop to the River		Turn to the River
Outs	Common Draws	Percent	Odds	Percent	Odds
20		67.5	0.48-1	43.5	1.30-1
19		65.0	0.54-1	41.3	1.42-1
18		62.4	0.60-1	39.1	1.56-1
17		59.8	0.67-1	37.0	1.71-1
16		57.0	0.75-1	34.8	1.88-1
15	Straight & Flush	54.1	0.85-1	32.6	2.07-1
14		51.2	0.95-1	30.4	2.29-1
13		48.1	1.08-1	28.3	2.54-1
12		45.0	1.22-1	26.1	2.83-1
11		41.7	1.40-1	23.9	3.18-1
10		38.4	1.60-1	21.7	3.60-1
9	Flush	35.0	1.86-1	19.6	4.11-1
8	Straight	31.5	2.17-1	17.4	4.75-1
7		27.8	2.60-1	15.2	5.57-1
6		24.1	3.15-1	13.0	6.67-1
5		20.3	3.93-1	10.9	8.20-1
4	Pair or Inside Straight Draw	16.5	5.06-1	8.7	10.50-1
3		12.5	7.00-1	6.5	14.33-1
2		8.4	10.90-1	4.3	22.00-1
1		4.3	22.26-1	2.2	45.00-1

The Multiply by Two Rule

Another way of calculating pot odds is the ‘Multiply by Two Rule’, which states we multiply our outs by two. So using our flush example, nine outs would equal 18% (almost 20%). For a straight draw, count how many outs and multiply by two. For example, we are dealt 98. The flop comes A76 giving us the open ended straight draw of 6789. Therefore, we need a 5 or a T (ten) and there are 8 outs (four fives and four tens). The multiply by two rule states, number of outs (8) multiplied by two is 16% (almost 20%).

Another useful example is when we have two overcards. Let’s say we have AK, the flop comes 952. We reason if an A or K comes on the turn we will win. There are three Aces and three Kings left in the deck, 6 outs multiplied by two is 12%. Our overcards will hit 12% of the time and a blank card will come 88% of the time. There must be about $88 in the pot for us to call $12 if we want to break-even (about 7 to 1).

So far we’ve only mentioned the odds for one card, but let’s imagine a player goes all-in and by calling you’re guaranteed to see both the turn and river cards. If you want to know the odds on both the turn card and the river card then just add the two together. If we have nine outs then this would give a 36% (18% + 18%) chance of getting a flush on the next two cards. It doesn’t match the exact odds given in the chart, but it’s accurate enough and easy to do – you don’t have to be a math genius.

Don’t Fool Yourself

If you hit a flush or straight or any other hand you’re aiming for, it doesn’t mean you’re a guaranteed winner. If you need one more diamond to make a Queen high flush, then you could still lose to a King or Ace high flush. Your full house could lose to a better full house, and so on. These factors have to be taken into account when deciding whether it’s a good decision to call. Don’t fool yourself into believing that if you hit you’ll win.

It’s also important to calculate your odds on hitting the next card only. If you’re on the flop and someone bets, you must take into account that they may bet again after the turn if you miss. Many players think, "I have a 35% chance of hitting a flush on the turn and river", which is true, but if you miss on the turn and a player makes a big bet on the turn, you won’t be getting the correct odds. The exception to this is if a player was all-in and you were guaranteed to see the turn and the river by calling.

A Quick Math Lesson

So far in this lesson we’ve used both percent and odds, and you may be wondering how to calculate odds and percentages. For many this can be confusing, particularly if you missed the math class at school. We’ll now explain both methods:

How to convert odds into percent:

• If the odds are 3-to-1, 3 + 1 = 4. Then 100 / 4 = 0.25, or 25%.
• If the odds are 4-to-1, 4 + 1 = 5. Then 100 / 5 = 0.20, or 20%.

How to convert percent into odds:

• If the percent is 25%, 100 / 25 = 4. Then 4 – 1 = 3, giving 3-to-1 odds.
• If the percent is 20%, 100 / 20 = 5. Then 5 – 1 = 4, giving 4-to-1 odds.

Some people prefer to use percent and others prefer using odds. I personally prefer using odds rather than percent, as I find it easier. This is why it’s a good idea to memorize some of the common draws, such as knowing that a flush draw is 4-to-1 odds. The reason this is easier is that it requires less work when calculating the pot odds.

Calculating the Pot Odds

So far we’ve talked about the odds of hitting your card(s) and methods of calculating your chances. But the other crucial factor is to know what odds the pot is offering you. The best way to teach you this is to use an example hand. Take a look at figure 1, below:

Figure 1

As you can see, you have the nut flush draw, and the odds of hitting on the river are roughly 20% or 4-to-1 odds. There is $450 in the pot, and player 2 bets $150, which now makes the total pot $600. It’s going to cost you $150 to win $600. How do we calculate these figures to give us the pot odds? This is fairly simple as 600/150 = 4, so you have 4-to-1 odds for your money.

If we want the percentage then it’s a bit harder, as we have to add the bet (call amount) to the pot, to give us a total pot figure. In this example it would be: 150 + 600 = 750. Once we have this figure then we would have to perform the following formula: call amount / total pot, which in this example would be 150 / 750 = 0.2, or 20%. So, in this situation you can justify the call of $150. But remember it’s a break-even call over the long term. Ideally you’d want the pot to be a little bigger or their bet to be a little smaller. But calling is perfectly reasonable in this scenario.

Implied Odds

This is an extension of pot odds and represents the ratio of the total amount you expect to win if you complete your hand, to the amount you would need to call to continue. Put simply, you don’t have the correct odds to call, but if you reason that there’s a good chance that your opponent will bet again when you hit your draw, you might be getting the implied odds to call. Implied odds are an important aspect of no limit hold’em, but as a beginner you should stick to pot odds, and only consider implied odds when you have more experience, because while pot odds are an exact calculation, implied odds takes some guess work and knowledge of your opponents’ tendencies.

So, that old feeling we had, "There is a bunch of money in the pot, I call", was and is a sound tactic. Now we know more precisely when it is profitable and when it is not profitable to go in on draws. Knowing pot odds does two things, it lets us concentrate on the other players and turns poker into a game of skill.

---

Next Lesson: Beginners Level » Module 3 » Lesson 4 » The Art of Bluffing