Perfecting Pot Odds
As we’ve said before, in poker there are good bets and bad bets – the game is simply a way of determining who can tell the difference. While the knowledge of what pot odds are and how we can use them to determine if a call is mathematically correct are important, you need to step beyond that knowledge in order to become more sophisticated in your play. That is to say – if you aspire to become a more cunning, dangerous and winning poker player, then additional steps are necessary. How do you do that? By perfecting pot odds, of course!
Know the Odds
Before we begin to explore how to use pot odds for our own advantage, you should already know how to calculate odds based upon the number of outs. If you don’t know the odds of hitting certain common draws, then go back to the beginner level lesson “An Introduction to Pot Odds” – I recommend that you memorize these odds. Your time is better spent analyzing your opponents’ play rather than attempting to perform mathematical calculations in your head.
Track the Pot Size
The previous lesson on pot odds focused on the calculation of how to figure the odds of your hand becoming a winner. The other part of the equation is to know how much is actually in the pot in order to know what odds it is offering you. Have you ever heard a player ask the dealer how much is in the pot? You absolutely know that player to be a rookie as it is not the dealer’s job to offer that information. In fact, unless it’s a pot limit game, it would be inappropriate for the dealer to announce how much money is in the pot. Those rookies then take a guess as to what has already been wagered. Here are some critical words of advice – know what is in the pot at all times. How else can you make proper mathematical decisions?
It is critical to know the pot size and it is not difficult to do. I am constantly amazed at how many players do not keep track of the pot and just use a guess based upon how large it looks. It is as easy as paying attention to always be aware of pot size. You know how large the big blind is and, if there is no raise, it is simply a matter of multiplying the size of the big blind by the number of active players pre-flop. If there is a raise and all active players call then just multiply the total price to call by the number of active participants. If it is a mixed bag of original callers and the callers of a raise, it gets a little more complicated but once you make it a habit to always be tracking the pot it will become second nature. Remember, this is not just an annoying little task, it is absolutely critical in order to even use pot odds. In case some of you were not paying attention – know the pot size at every step of the way!
Observe Your Opponents
You should be tracking the pot size even when you are not involved in the current hand. There are two reasons for doing this; it will help you practice the discipline of counting the pot, and it will also offer you a real bonus of information gathering. If you are not involved but desirous of learning your opponents’ strengths and weaknesses you will be able to determine at the showdown which of your opponents are making good and bad pot odds decisions. As an example – you will know how much was in the pot before the river and how much it cost a certain player to call. When you discover on the river the player in question drew to an inside straight and did not have nearly the 10.5-to-1 pot odds that would have made the draw mathematically correct, you’ve learned something about that player. Knowledge is power and that is why winning poker players are always paying attention whether they are in the hand or not.
The other side of the coin to this last example is to identify a poker player that is regularly making good use of pot odds to his draws. This is a player who prides himself on proper use of pot odds. You can use this information to your advantage when, in a future confrontation against him, in which you believe he is on a draw and you want to make a move and bluff him. Well in this case you’d simply make a bet that prices him out of his draw by making the pot odds unattractive to him. If you aren’t taking advantage of your ability to manipulate the pot odds to price out opponents’ draws you might as well be giving them a free card.
Make Your Opponents Pay
Here is a classic example of a situation that needs to be examined through being aware of the size of the pot, your opponents’ tendencies, the texture of the board and the odds to make the potential draws the board seems to provide. Imagine raising three limpers from late position, holding pocket J
J
. The big blind and the three original limpers all call your raise and the five of you watch a flop of Q
J3. You’ve hit middle set but there are both straight and flush draws staring at you along with four opponents. There is $200 in the pot and everyone checks to you. You are definitely going to make a continuation bet but you need to decide on how much. Allow me to provide a check list of criteria to think about that as you become more experienced will become so automatic as to not even require any conscious thought.
- Know the pot size – in this case $200.
- Acknowledge the texture of the flop and tendencies of your opponents in terms of potential threats to your holding. Limpers and callers are many times on draws.
- Know the odds to the potential draws the flop offers. In this case both flush and straight draws.
- Make a bet that will not offer the potential draws the correct odds.
- You should bet the size of the pot, $200, in order to make the odds being offered by the pot only 2-to-1 which would not be attractive odds for draws.
If it is true, and I believe it is, that the bulk of your poker profit comes from the mistakes of others rather than you own brilliant play, then identifying opponents that overpay to draw to their hands is critical information. Aside from just playing too many hands, the biggest and most expensive mistake less experienced poker players commit is paying too high a price to try to make their draws. Ferret this information out by tracking the pot and watching showdowns and then you can determine how to manipulate the size of the pot against that opponent in a future hand.
Implied Odds
You should already know about implied odds, which we’ve talked about throughout this course. But to quickly recap, implied odds are defined as the ratio of the total amount of money one expects to win if they make their hand, to the amount they must now call in order to continue in the hand. While implied odds are an important tool to be aware of, particularly in no limit hold’em, many less disciplined players abuse it by using it as a justification to chase draws that are not getting the proper pot odds. While pot odds can be calculated with total accuracy, calculating implied odds is more of an art than a science.
If you’re going to use implied odds as justification to call an opponent, then be aware that some draws have greater implied odds than others. Remember that flush draws do not have great implied odds, simply because many times when the third suited card lands on the board your opponents may freeze up. This denies you the implied odds you had hoped for. In contrast, the best implied odds draw is a double belly buster straight because of its stealth nature. An example of this type of hand would be a flop of AJ8 while holding QT. While the board looks somewhat disjointed you have eight outs (four Kings and four nines) to hit your straight. An additional upside to a hand like this is that an opponent may have Big Slick and if a King hits the board he will give you plenty of action and many times never see your stealth nut straight coming.
Tournament Play
Much of what has been offered so far is beneficial for both cash games and tournaments. But you should approach opponents in tournaments that are desperate a little differently. In a cash game, being pot committed doesn’t really come into play. The term pot committed simply refers to a player who has half or more of his chips already in the pot so if he loses this pot he is pretty much finished anyway. This player will be calling, not based upon the pot odds, but due to his predicament. Players calling in tournament play without the correct pot odds does not necessarily indicate poor play. Calling may well still represent their best chance mathematically to move forward in the tournament and make some money. Hence the expression, do or die!
The reverse situation relative to pot odds can also occur in tournament play. Imagine being in a situation wherein you have the correct pot odds to call but folding could be the better option to advance. An example of this type of phenomenon would be holding the nut flush draw with one card to come with two other opponents already all-in by a monster stack late in a tournament. The pot could be offering you greater than the odds required to make the call mathematically correct but the fact still remains that you will miss your flush 80 percent of the time. If you were on the bubble with the big stack bully already having two other players all-in and you knew you would only prevail in the hand 20 percent of time – I think a fold would be in order.
Many believe that pot odds aren’t nearly as important in tournament play. This is especially true in the lower stake “fast” events that are typical in both live and internet play. These players focus on the odds of their opponents’ calling based upon the size of chip stacks. While some of this is true, if you begin to ignore pot odds because you are in a tournament, you will begin to slide down a slippery slope. If you are planning to make a decision that is not in accordance with good pot odds play, you should have a very significant reason.
Put in the Work
Knowing what and how to use pot odds is essential if you wish to become a winning poker player. Learning how to use these concepts to your advantage can put you well ahead of a vast legion of players that are just too lazy to put in the work. They are playing on feel and their gut instincts and proud of it. I’m happy they’re proud of this approach because I know they can’t be proud of their bankrolls. These “proud” players are the assets you need in both cash games and tournaments. Let them be proud – you should put in the work – you’ll be glad you did as you’ll end up with their bankrolls.
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