Betting the Turn and River
In the last poker lesson it was pointed out that once the flop is delivered you know 71 percent of your final hand. This lesson will focus on both the turn and the river which produce 86 percent and 100 percent of your hand respectively. One could say the turn represents the home stretch and the river the finish line. Let’s explore some differences in how one might approach each of these streets for improved results.
The Turn
I have heard many poker pundits express the belief that the turn is the most difficult street to play in hold’em. While it can become tricky, especially in no-limit, if you are in with a quality holding it shouldn’t be that difficult unless the turn card adds a new dimension such as three suiting or three straightening the board. If you’re still in post flop you really need to have something – even if that something is just a plan. That plan could be, as discussed in the last lesson, floating the flop to attempt a steal on the turn. The following are several elements that should command your attention on the turn.
Re-assess Your Table Image
This is a good time to re-assess what you believe to be your current table image. If you have been playing very few hands and the ones you have been playing were played aggressively and when called down have shown solid hand values, then if you’re being called by a good player – it’s reasonable to put him on more than just air. Here is an example:
You limp from early position with pocket tens and the flop comes Q93 of assorted suits. You make a semi-bluff bet with second pair and an opponent smooth calls. Now that same opponent bets into you on the turn. The most prudent course of action is to give that opponent credit for a better hand than tens and fold. While some may opine that this is too tight a way to play, one should have top pair or better by the turn or at least a viable draw or they should be checking and folding.
While playing in this manner should keep you out of trouble, you need to be aware that your more observant opponents will see right through this and take advantage of your one dimensional play. In order to thwart this type of predatory behaviour you need to mix in some check raises so that your checks do not indicate that a bet on their part will automatically move you off your hand. Predictability is the sign of a weak player.
Drawing Hands
We’ll discuss both the defensive and offensive aspects of drawing hands which simply means – are you on a draw or is your opponent? Let’s first explore when you believe you currently have the best hand but believe your opponent is on a draw with one card to come. You need to make a bet now so as not to allow your opponent to draw for free. Obviously you need to make it mathematically incorrect for him to draw. Depending on what you perceive his draw to be, he has as few as four outs (inside straight draw) up to as many as fifteen outs (flush and open ended straight draw). Not to bet now is incorrect for two reasons – first, you should not allow him to draw for free and secondly, if you check now and the draw doesn’t come in you will not make any money by betting the river as he will simply muck his busted draw. So, bet to make your money now and hope the draw doesn’t arrive.
What if you are the one on the draw? For example, we’ll imagine that you have a four flush on the turn and believe you will prevail if another of your suit lands on the river. You are about 4-to-1 against hitting your flush but you may have other outs as well if pairing one of your cards would result in a winning hand. Also, implied odds should be taken into consideration. The implied odds of a straight draw are usually higher than the implied odds of a flush draw. This is because many players freeze up when a third suited card lands on the board. A double belly buster straight draw has the highest implied odds due to its stealth nature. In the final analysis it is usually worth proceeding to the river with this draw, especially if the board is not paired and you hold the ace providing the nut flush draw.
Scare Cards
A scare card is one you don’t normally want to see. If there were two hearts on the flop and you have two black hole cards you certainly do not want to see another heart on the turn. But what if you do? Well, now is the time to put the knowledge you’ve accumulated about your opponents to work. If an opponent now bets into two or more players, then you should probably fold as he would realize it’s too likely someone will call so he must have a real hand. If on the other hand this opponent is known to be tricky, loose or generally enamoured with bluffing then a call or even a raise could be in order. Also, aside from player tendencies always be aware of the odds the pot is offering to help guide your decision. Personally, I would rather use a scare card to my own advantage than be put on the defensive. Remember this – if the card in question is scary looking to you it may well be downright intimidating to your opponent.
When a Call is Scary
As we have stated repeatedly, it is critical to learn your adversaries’ tendencies to understand what their calls, checks, bets and raises mean. Imagine that you are dealt a solid hand with which you raise pre-flop. A player who you respect just calls and holds position over you. You don’t connect with the flop but you don’t believe your opponent did either as it was rags of three different suits, so you bet the pot to head off any potential back door draws. This player (whose play you respect) now flat calls. This call-call betting pattern should be of concern if in fact your opponent is the good poker player you believe him to be. Why? – Because good players usually don’t call. They well know the value of aggression and, if for no other reason than finding out where they are in the hand, will usually raise. This passive behaviour by a good poker player could very well mean he is setting a trap by slow playing a big hand. Proceed with caution when this scenario begins to play itself out.
The River
You’ve arrived at the finish line and your hand is fully realized – there are no more cards to come. Utilizing your knowledge of your opponents, your hand reading skills, a review of the betting and the value of your hand in relation to the board, you need to decide if you have a winner. If you believe you have the best hand you further need to decide how you can make the most of it by winning as much as possible. If you determine you don’t have the winner you need to make an assessment as to whether you can still make it the winner or if discretion and folding to find a better spot is the most judicious course of action. Let’s examine in more detail certain elements that must be reviewed now that you’ve arrived at the river.
The Maximum Value Bet
The term "value bet" is often misused, referring to a small bet into a large pot. It has value because the small bet size will induce an opponent to call. However, if you are doing this you are losing money in the long run. To truly place a value bet means you are extracting maximum value from the hand based on what your opponent thinks you have. Let’s do a quick math exercise to explain:
Let’s say you bet $100 into a $500 chip pot and expect to get called 90% of the time. So in 100 hands, you would make $9,000 (100 x 100 x 0.90). Now, instead let’s bet $250 into that $500 pot. It’s hard to tell whether you are bluffing or not. You certainly won’t get called as much, but it’s realistic that you will get called at least 60% of the time depending on how the hand was played. So $250 x 100 hands x 0.60 = $15,000. That is $6,000 more chips that you earn over 100 hands simply by increasing the size of your bet.
Bluffing
Know your intended victim’s strengths, frailties and most importantly his impression of you. There are times you realize the only way you can win on the river is with a bluff. This is usually the result of a missed draw. Now you need to be able to read your opponent to determine if he has a hand which he will feel compelled to call or if he can be encouraged to muck. The best players to bluff on the end are better players who think they have you all figured out and believe you don’t have it in you to bluff on the end. These are the players that have watched you show down quality hand after quality hand when you’ve been called at the river. They think they’re smart enough to save money on the end when you make that river bet. Occasionally offering these players the opportunity to show how smart they are can be profitable.
Laying Down Hands
If you have arrived at an advanced level of playing poker then you are able to lay hands down. Some intermediate players never get to the advanced level simply because they cannot bring themselves to release good hands. They get too emotionally attached and make the nonsensical rationalization that they have too much of their own money in the pot. Money that is already in the pot is no longer in your possession. In fact, if you never lay down a winner then you are playing too loose. Poker values are situational and you must look at each situation with brutal honesty in order to maximize your profit with your winning hands and minimize losses with losing hands.
The real key to being able to make big laydowns is to keep them to yourself. We’ve all seen the dandy that wants to bask in his own perceived brilliance by showing the table just what a top notch player he is by showing everyone the big laydown he just made. Those demonstrations represent an out of control ego. Not only is the momentary gratification not worth it but it invites trouble for the future. That trouble comes from observant opponents who attempt more bluffs against you. Make your laydowns and keep your poker image intact.
Risk vs. Reward
Risk versus reward should always be in the forefront of your thoughts at the no-limit hold’em table. One miscue and potentially your whole stack can disappear. Players who regularly seek out small edges in no-limit hold’em come to regret their greed. While often is the case that the spoils go to the bold – always weigh the risk versus the reward.
Play and Play and Play
I hope these thoughts on playing the turn and river will be of help in assisting you to take your game to the next level. Minnesota Fats, the legendary American pool hustler, was once asked about the technical aspects of billiards in order to improve one’s play. His response was, “Ya’ just gotta hit balls and balls and balls – and you’ll learn”. In that regard poker is much the same. The concepts in this lesson should help you think about how to play, but you need to play and play and play to truly understand and excel at the game.
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