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    J_Verschueren's Avatar
    J_Verschueren is offline They call me "J"
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    Default Quick question

    Well, I say quick question, it might possibly require some explanation if I'm missing something.

    Situation: 45-man sit&go, about to go down to 2 tables, but still relatively far from the money (7 positions pay), playing 7 handed.

    You're UTG+1 w/ 12BB, but the blinds are about to go up. To your left is the 60BB chipleader, other players have 5BB-9BB stacks except for the BB (who's 4-tabling, been playing snug through the early levels and recently picked a couple spots to keep his stack up), who also has 12BB.
    You have : ship or fold?

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    bambini's Avatar
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    Default Quick question

    Fold and hope for better cards in the next couple of hands.
    "Never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city" - Coach Finstock, Teen Wolf

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    RyckyRych is offline Retired Micro Grinder
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    Fold. That's plain shitty. I know its suited but 63d? Only place I'd try that would be SB. Those 5BB stacks need to do something and as you say its not that close to the money. I think the risk>reward.
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    Tim is offline quintessential chopbuster
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    Quote Originally Posted by bambini View Post
    Fold and hope for better cards in the next couple of hands.
    Quote Originally Posted by RyckyRych View Post
    Fold. That's plain shitty.
    Fold :)

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    bambini's Avatar
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    Default Quick question

    What's this about then, J? You're an experienced player, you know that 63s is a folding hand. What happened?
    "Never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city" - Coach Finstock, Teen Wolf

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    J_Verschueren's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bambini View Post
    What's this about then, J? You're an experienced player, you know that 63s is a folding hand. What happened?
    Well, I don't know what happened (well, I do, I'm just at a loss to explain it). I'm BB in this hand and villain was showing every sign of being a mass multitabler. Hiding from the search feature, in every game I was in and taking random amounts of time to act even in the most trivial of spots (anyone overcalling a 3-way all-in @25/50 blinds? -even with Aces? -not saying he didn't have them, but, you know...), so one might assume this guy has his push/fold strategy down, right?

    So this guy ships, everyone else folds and I'm looking at , so what is this dude realistically shipping here? 15-20%? -even though we're both still fairly comfortably stacked at this blind level, those are about to go up and (if I fold) and I'll be in dire straights once that blind increase hits us. Which is one factor which inclines to calling off, another is a 5-7% range does quite well against his perceived range and I've got a hand near the top of that range.
    Obviously, he could have JJ+, but even so, I'm not really that much worse off unless he's got AA or KK. Key factor is: given his play he was, in my mind, not very likely to have funky undercard combo's which had ok equity against me. Plus, if I won, I'd be more than comfortably stacked and be able to apply that avantage in the hands to come (given we're still some way from being "in the money", so I'd have to take +cEV spots).

    If he was wider than predicted, then any play I made at the pot would edge us closer and closer to break-even (even though I hold a premium hand). In other words, he would be leveraging the advantage of shipping into a known somewhat tight, similarly stacked opponent and I would be reacting by ever more putting my tournament life at stake.
    Which would be valid reasoning, if we were the only players left in the pot. But we weren't, there was 4 other players to get through, among which, the looney toon chipleader. And I say this because he has to be a looney toon (he was 1-tabling, BTW). I've played nearly 1500 of these things and I've never had a 60BB stack at this stage. No matter how well a thinking player runs, he's never going to have that sort of a heater. Those only come about through irrational thinking combined with luck, imo (which was, sort of, verified as this guy busted 8th). So this chipleader might call villain because "T6s is Daniel Negreanu's favourite hand" or any of the "desperately stacked"-people may feel they have ok equity, given the pot odds.
    It's true villain doesn't necessarily has to worry about me, as I will call only a small percentage of the time, but relying on that would require a dead read on the other players not calling in between, which is unlikely. The whole thing just doesn't make sense, given villain, from observation, clearly, should be playing to win.

    I don't recall the actual board (and I don't have HEM enabled at this point in time) but, in the end I flopped him almost dead (seriously, there was never any real doubt about me calling this character, was there?) on the flop, but he picked up a flush draw and a gutshot on the turn (and thus some equity) and hit the runner-runner straight on the river, busting me.

    I'm glad most posters think along my line of thought as to the not ever being a ship in this situation, but one question remains: could you have made any more sense of the situation and found a fold at any one point?

  7. #7
    bambini's Avatar
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    Default Quick question

    I think you were right to jam here. I take it the villain had 63s here. I suspect it was either a misclick or he, like you, was getting worried about the blinds about to go up. Either way, it was an unusual play, and one which won't give him +ev in the long run.

    As for your spot, I think a shove was the only thing to do. Your villain was likely to play a wide range, so you were likely to be ahead or flipping PF. The short stacks weren't really likely to call as they seem like passive players and 2 players at the table were showing strength. The maniac chip leader may have called, but also with a wide range. Even if the villain an chip leader had both called you, you'd still probably be in a good spot to triple up.

    This is one of those spots where your options were limited. AKo is too good a hand to toss when your stack is low, unless you had a soul read that your opponent was playing AA or KK. The fact that you busted out is a matter of bad luck, not bad play.
    "Never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city" - Coach Finstock, Teen Wolf

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    RyckyRych's Avatar
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    Oh there is no doubt he's calling with AKo, but 63s is a bit light there IMHO unless he really felt the table was tight. Even then I don't see it. Of course, I don't play anymore and there might be a reason to do it now as opposed to when I played.

    Its still shitty. In fact, after doing a little research with my own research from years ago, this isn't even close. He is waaaay too wide here.
    Last edited by RyckyRych; Jan 9th, 2015 at 01:43 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RyckyRych View Post
    Oh there is no doubt he's calling with AKo, but 63s is a bit light there IMHO unless he really felt the table was tight. Even then I don't see it. Of course, I don't play anymore and there might be a reason to do it now as opposed to when I played.

    Its still shitty. In fact, after doing a little research with my own research from years ago, this isn't even close. He is waaaay too wide here.
    Indeed, in this particular case I was never really folding, but my hand and the result are sort of irrelevant, unless somehow villain made the right play. Which we all agree he didn't, as shipping 70% is way too wide for that spot. I was just worried I'd misread the situation and should adapt my play (either by adjusting my calling range or making a similar play when I'm the one who's first into the pot). It's a relief to know we all sort of agree it was either a spazz or a misclick by villain (or he might be just misinformed and the general nature of these games is such it doesn't cost him that much in the long run).
    The microstacks were playing kind of snug (otherwise they wouldn't be microstacks) and the chipleader seemed to be coasting (an illusion brought on by a small streak of really unplayable hands, I think), but, still, shipping a hand which only has suitedness as a redeeming feature into 5 people, seriously? -then again, as players, we should all be "happy" people are still doing these things.

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