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Thread: making good decisions

  1. #1
    greasy is offline Junior Member
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    Default making good decisions

    Hello first post.

    Ive been in a downswing and I dont know the problem. Heres an example. I started playing with 100 bankroll in 2$ 5$ sng. My bankroll grew so I decided to play 11$ tourneys.. I placed 4th in 1 tourney and mostly place in paid get paid. But as of 2 weeks ago ive went from 300 to 17 bucks bankroll:/ is this variance? Am I playing above my skill level? Ive noticed ive been playing more tight on starting hands and because of this ive been missing out on flop sets.. big flop sets :/ so I wait a couple hands.. n play a a8 n lose.. next hand I get j6 suited.. dont play.. and watch the winner walk out with 9s on a 7 j 9 3 6.... wtf is going on I coulda tripled my tourney stack if I woulda went on luck?? Just bad juju? Its been 2 weeks straight like this. Im confused. Im not tired of playing..thats where im scared.. I placed in a tourney this morning.. but I know I need to tweak my game before my bankrolls gone. I know its not a alot of money.. please help.. sorry if its confusing.

  2. #2
    J_Verschueren's Avatar
    J_Verschueren is offline They call me "J"
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    Well, your post is confusing. To formulate an answer which you could actually use in your play we need a lot more information, so let's start to get organised.

    1) what type of sit&go do you play? (nr. of players, regular or turbo, payout structure?)
    2) what site do you play on?
    3) how many sit&go's have you played total?
    4) how many tables do you play at once?
    5) what are the spots you're having difficulty with? (certain blind levels, stack depths, short handed play, bubble play?)

    What you're experiencing is, off course, part variance, but what really got you into trouble is bad bankroll management (*). Playing the $5 games on a $100,- roll was already a disaster waiting to happen, but then moving to $11,- games and staying there when things didn't work out was a mistake. There is nothing wrong with taking a shot when things are running well, but it has to be a finite amount. Take a 5-buy-in shot, a 10-buy-in shot, fine, but, when the results don't come your way (for whatever reason), accept you're now risking ruin and move back down.
    There are various sites on the internet which will let you play around with sit&go type, buy-ins, winrates, bankroll amount and the associated risk of ruin (search sit&go risk of ruin simulator). Looking at them can be quite enlightning. Because sit&go's are a numbers game, a big numbers game. When I took a shot at playing the microstakes 45-man sit&go's on PokerStars, I was amazed to find that a 50 buy-in downswing was almost a given (93% probable, I think it was) for an average winning player (10% ROI) over 3000 games. And, lo and behold, over 3000 games I had a 57 buy-in swing for an average ROI of 9.2% (ROI= return on investment, the average profit you stand to make on every $1,- invested in the game, taking rake into account). You need to have a bankroll strategy in place to be able to be "in play" for enough games in order to draw worthwhile conclusions about your game from your stats (which should be nearer 10k games, but 3k games serves as an indicator). Because, in my experience, in the short run, as a recreational player (i.e. not grinding at least 8 tables for 8 hours a day), you can get your ass handed to you for weeks at a time.

    This ends my formal analysis, what follows is part inferrence/reading between the lines and may not be accurate, but I've played a buttload (I've recently learned this is a proper word -with etemology attached-, so I'm going to use it) of sit&go's and I have seen many instances of what you describe. I've seen a pattern develop, so to speak.
    It would appear to me you know fairly little about actual sit&go strategy and, therefore, play a largely adaptive, "feel" game. Which is ok as, initially, this will confuse the hell out of sit&go players. However, as you continue to play, the sharpies (of which there are quite a few at the $11,- level) will figure out you don't really know what you're doing and they'll adapt their game to cut you up something fierce.
    Sit&go's are the worst form of poker to be taking on as a beginner as the mathematics behind correct play are quite strict and, if you're not aware of them, you are going to get eaten alive by those who do.

    My suggestion: reload, but stick to buy-ins < $5,- untill you establish yourself over a large enough sample of games. Search for and aquire a copy of Colin Moshman's "Sit 'n Go Strategy", read it (several times) and also read the adjustments required for multi-table sit&go's posted in the STT Strategy forum on the 2+2 forums. Also: continue to post questions and hands here (in the STT/MTT strategy section)..., in joining the Pokerology community, you have tapped into some great minds. It would be a shame to underuse this resource.

    (*) Rem.: note the recommendations on this site are for single table sit&go's. Seeing as you appear to mention 4th as a paying position, I'm assuming you're at least playing 18-mans. Multi-table sit&go's need to be treated as multi-table tournaments and thus should be played on a roll of 100-150 buy-ins.
    Last edited by J_Verschueren; Jun 26th, 2014 at 02:29 AM.
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  3. #3
    RyckyRych's Avatar
    RyckyRych is offline Retired Micro Grinder
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    "ive went from 300 to 17 bucks bankroll:/ is this variance?"

    No, this is bad bankroll management. You are playing games too high for your bankroll to support. IMHO a casual player with a $100 bankroll that can't be easily replaced from you life money, you should play nothing higher than a $2 SNG or a $1 MTT. I have an article/video about the subject here, find it and take a look and you'll see what I mean.
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  4. #4
    RyckyRych's Avatar
    RyckyRych is offline Retired Micro Grinder
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    "(*) Rem.: note the recommendations on this site are for single table sit&go's. Seeing as you appear to mention 4th as a paying position, I'm assuming you're at least playing 18-mans. Multi-table sit&go's need to be treated as multi-table tournaments and thus should be played on a roll of 100-150 buy-ins."

    I know Cake Poker (or whatever they are now) had 10-man STTs that paid out 4 places. If he plays 18-man SNG I'd say 100-150 is quite safe, more toward 80-100 BIs if fine though. He still plays too high.
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  5. #5
    greasy is offline Junior Member
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    Ive bin mostly playing 9n merge carbon poker just as a side.. I feel more comfortable in the higher stake sit n gos cause theres less maniacs... the 4th I placed was in a 11$ tournament with I think 300 or so people.. thanks j!.. guess its back to sudying :/ I need like a $1000 bankroll to play 11$ games huh..
    Last edited by greasy; Jun 26th, 2014 at 05:51 PM.

  6. #6
    greasy is offline Junior Member
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    Ive mostly been entering the hyper turbo 11$ with 6 people.. I like the hand ranges. Ive bin in 45 sng. 4 were 33 dollar, 3 22 dollar 18 11 dollar all with 2 pay outs. I make it 3rd.. alot.
    the other sng are a mix between knockout and 2-5 dollar sng with 3 pay outs.. im spreading myself too thin huh.. I think where im confident is im not first out or so yo say.. im always in the top 4 for the higher stake sit n go.. n always seem to get paid in big tournaments with 100 or more people
    Last edited by greasy; Jun 26th, 2014 at 05:53 PM.

  7. #7
    greasy is offline Junior Member
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    And this might sound really dumb or crazy but ive bin pplying just 1 table at a time.. moslty on my mobile.. so my notes are pretty scattered. Im very intrested in holdem.. I know im a new n have alot of work.

  8. #8
    greasy is offline Junior Member
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    Oh and thank you! I really appreciate all advice.. I know ive bin playing on my instinct s more than I should.. and I can tell when my oppent switches up there game cause they think ima calling station.. I wanna switch to more tag when they do this but it never works :/

  9. #9
    Harald Zone's Avatar
    Harald Zone is offline Senior Member
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    If I were you, I would play the $1 or $2 "Double or Nothing" games on Carbon. Just play one or two at a time; play tight; play smart. You might be pleasantly surprised how quick you can grind from $25 to $200.
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  10. #10
    Breezy's Avatar
    Breezy is offline Feel the Breeze
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    I only read what you wrote and didn't skim through the rest of the comments. But from what it looks like. You was playing outside of your bank roll. Sure they say it is ok to "take a shot" here and there but not to get to comfortable doing so. Not until you are really rolled to step it up. And one thing you have to do is when you take that hit to your bankroll you are suppose to step back down with in your bankroll. It seems once you get up in stakes it takes forever to get back up to them when you had to step down. And then so many grinders will chase their loss by staying where they are at or jumping up even higher thinking they can bink and bounce. This is a form of playing on tilt. Step back down and work from the bottom again. And do not be afraid to step down limits to recover. Hundreds of pros have had to step it down a notch. So take it on the chin and start over. Happy Grinding.
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    ​Breezy

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