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Thread: What do you guys think of this play?

  1. #1
    QF10 is offline Junior Member
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    Feb 2014

    Default What do you guys think of this play?

    Blinds: 15/30
    Hero: BB
    Villain: UTG

    I was heads-up against this opponent who was quite loose to begin with having a 29 VP$IP and a PFR of 5. The villain calls 30 UTG and the player in Middle Position calls as well. I am the BB and I raise to 150 with AhQh. The villain calls and the Middle Position folds. The flop comes 5s 2s 6h. I make a standard Cbet of 150 to try to knock him out with two over cards. He calls and at this point I am thinking that he could have a flush draw. It's possible that he also had a pair on the board but I felt like that was unlikely otherwise he would have raised me, given the two over cards that I assumed he knew I had. The turn comes Ad. I raise to 350 with a high kicker and he raises to 1950. I felt a bluff since that raise was way beyond a 3 betting range. I re-raise all in and he calls with As4s. River comes 8h.

    Was this the correct play?

    I reviewed the hand after the round...

    He had 16 outs that could win him the pot. 3 outs (4) for 2 pair, 4 outs (3) for a straight, 9 outs for a flush. Around a 35% chance of winning.

    I attached a picture of how it all went down, including Poker Stove Equity on the turn. To the right are his HUD stats.

    Attached Images Attached Images

  2. #2
    J_Verschueren's Avatar
    J_Verschueren is offline They call me "J"
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    Aug 2011
    Antwerp, Belgium


    150BB+ deep I'm not a fan of how this hand went down. I think you got quite lucky you were up against a total clown (ok, fishy stats, but 21 hands is not enough to peg a player), he happened to have one of the hands you were a moderate favourite against and your hand held up. Stoving against the hand he turned up with is not a good way to determine your equity. The version of pokerstove I have here on my work PC has expired, but I think if you stove against a loose limp/calling range (say 55+, A2s+, ATo+, JTs+, KJo+, some other suited broadways and QJo), you're going to struggle to get 60% behind your name.

    It's right on the edge, but, deepstacked, in general, I'd reserve raising limpers from the BB for either stronger (monsters) or weaker hands (semi-bluffs) and check all the medium strength stuff. I guess one could make a case for raising if we already know one or both villains are complete clowns, but at the end of the day you're bloating the pot OOP with a suited one-gapper.

    The effect is immediate: on the flop you're struggling to keep the betting small. Less than half pot is too small for a Cbet. The problem with a hand like AQs is, against thinking players, it either wins a small pot or loses a big one. In other words against people with more than one working braincell, TPGK is going to be way behind when the money goes in that deep. OOP we're going to be playing defense if we miss (which is most of the time and even if we make top pair we generally don't want to end up all-in in slow structures), so we would like the bets to be small compared to the stacks. Checking shrinks the pot by a factor of 3, so we can check/call a bet on a low flop like that (villains stats suggest he might even give us a free card).

    As played the lead on the turn is fine (sizing is also ok with only one card to come), but it turns our hand face up. Not that it matters much against this villain (he isn't thinking about your hand), but checking would have repped 77-QQ, in which case we might have gotten a bet out of villain's total air.
    I agree general indications and villain's raise size all point to him being full of shit, but, through failing to control the potsize and villain's sizing he's unwittingly maneuvred you into a bad spot. You can't fold and give up your equity in this pot, you can't comfortably call and then fold if an unfavourable river comes and you can't price villain out anymore by raising (not that villain is thinking in terms of pot odds, but even an all-in gives him 2:1).

    Compare this to where you check your option, maybe check/call t75 on the flop and, after checking, face t200 on the turn. Here again, I would like to see just a call, so you can still comfortably fold on an unfavourable river, but, should you decide to check/raise, you can make it 1800 or so and cut villain's odds to about 1.5:1. Not that he won't call you, but at least it would be a mathematical mistake and you'd have a nice chunk behind to shovel in on any non-spade river.

    BTW: please post tournament hands in the Tournament poker subforum.

    Edit: I'm afraid I suffered some Friday brainfade here. When I was reasoning out how you were fairing against his range, for some reason, I had the flop in mind where, indeed, you're only about a 54% favourite. Obviously, you stoved on the turn where, against this range, you're a massive favourite (80%). Therefore getting it in on the turn is not as bad as I mentioned, however the point holds you shouldn't let luck decide a 300BB+ pot that early in the tournament. There are safer ways to chip up for smaller proportions of your stack. Manipulate the potsize and let your advantage work over time when deepstacked.
    Last edited by J_Verschueren; Mar 15th, 2014 at 01:03 AM. Reason: grammar/brainfade.

  3. #3
    RyckyRych's Avatar
    RyckyRych is offline Retired Micro Grinder
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    Oct 2009
    Houston, TX


    Just a few quick thoughts.

    I'd have raised to about 180-200 preflop. I like the 3x raise thing, adding 1x for each caller, plus 1x more if I'm in the blinds. Maybe this guy still calls but it's still my MO.

    On the flop I agree with J, your bet is too small. It almost smells like, "I missed that flop but I'm c-betting because I'm suppose to, but I'm afraid to since I only have A-high". The villain might have read weakness and tried to float you with his gutshot. I bet that if the turn was a Jack, you check and fold if he bets. Am I right?

    In this case you both "hit". You bet again, which is fine. I do like your read, his bet does seem strange. His hand does fit the profile of what a limp/caller has, a rag ace. I like the fact that you committed on the turn by going all-in but as J said, you found yourself in a bit of a strange spot. You won this mostly because you went with your read and was proven right. I can say I've done this myself, especially against the limp/caller types that overplay their AX hands.

    One thing I can't quite see are the starting stacks here, does he have you covered?
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