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Thread: Levels of thinking

  1. #1
    Patrick 'paddyjim''s Avatar
    Patrick 'paddyjim' is offline Senior Member
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    Default Levels of thinking

    So what level is this guy thinking at?
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  2. #2
    bambini's Avatar
    bambini is offline Senior Member
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    Holy cow. That guy got INCREDIBLY lucky.

    His odds of winning go like this...

    Preflop - 17.4%
    Flop - 5.25%
    Turn - 18.2%

    What a numpty. The good thing is that he's come away from this hand thinking "2-5 suited is a GREAT hand to play!" so I'm sure he'll hand out his chips before long.
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  3. #3
    Patrick 'paddyjim''s Avatar
    Patrick 'paddyjim' is offline Senior Member
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    I'm surprised he was 5% :-)
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  4. #4
    J_Verschueren's Avatar
    J_Verschueren is offline They call me "J"
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick 'paddyjim' View Post
    So what level is this guy thinking at?
    I think we have to give him credit for level 1: thinking about your hand. It's just because he doesn't know correct play, he makes big mistakes. By minraising two players, he probably thinks he's repping a big hand (because that is what he would do if he had AA or KK) and by you making it pot instead of minraising him back, you're taking the monsters out of your range in his mind. He therefore thinks he can blast you off your hand by moving in on a fairly dry flop like this, if you happen to have the Q and call, oh well...

    Think about it: you happen to have the aces here, so it's an instacall, but suppose you're sitting there w/ AcJc... If we give him any pair, any ace, most kings, all broadways, most of the better offsuit connectors and any 2 suited (62%), you have 63% equity and need 1.6:1 to call. Actual odds : 1.55:1.
    If you had JJ, obviously, knowing what we know now, we'd have a much better chance of winning (71%) and an easy call given our pot odds, but would you have called before you saw that hand?

    Playing devil's advocate here, obviously, but the point I'm trying to make is opponents' plays can and do make sense to them. They're not stupid, it's just their playing strategy is flawed. It behooves us, therefore, to identify these flaws, so we can go to that 2nd level, decode their thoughts, make sense of the nonsensical and predict the unpredictable.

    The beauty, of course, is this guy is now thinking: "Phew, that guy tricked me by fast playing his aces... what a donkey! -he was just lucky I tried to make a play, otherwise he wouldn't have gotten any money in the pot."
    Last edited by J_Verschueren; Mar 19th, 2013 at 01:57 AM. Reason: various errors

  5. #5
    RyckyRych's Avatar
    RyckyRych is offline Retired Micro Grinder
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    I don't think this guy was ranging anyone. He just wanted to play his hand cute and got very lucky.
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  6. #6
    Queso's Avatar
    Queso is offline Check To The Possible
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    Default Levels of thinking

    Quote Originally Posted by RyckyRych View Post
    I don't think this guy was ranging anyone. He just wanted to play his hand cute and got very lucky.
    ^this

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