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Thread: Immediate odds vs. implied odds

  1. #1
    bambini's Avatar
    bambini is offline Senior Member
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    Default Immediate odds vs. implied odds

    I was playing a home game the other night, when a particular hand came along that sparked some healthy debate. I thought I’d share it here.

    It was a cash game, blinds at 10p/20p. The hand had reached the turn with 2 players still in. Each player has about £15 in their stacks.

    The board was 789T rainbow. My brother, Al, has a supertight image and tends to be a station, bets out half the pot (about £1.50) from out of position. There is absolutely no doubt in anyone’s mind that he has a Jack (and indeed he had QJ). My buddy, Brian, hesitates for a couple of minutes before reluctantly folding. He shows his hand: T8 for 2-pair.

    Here’s where the debate kicked off: did Brian make a good fold, since he was clearly behind and didn’t have the immediate odds to call, or should he have called since he had great implied odds if he hit a full house?
    "Never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city" - Coach Finstock, Teen Wolf

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    J_Verschueren's Avatar
    J_Verschueren is offline They call me "J"
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    I would say it was a good fold. He's about 10% to improve so he needs 9:1 or better, while he's only getting 3:1. Even if he does hit he needs to extract another 6 times GBP1,5- on the river just to break even.
    Is a station going to lead out if the river pairs the board? -if so, will he call a raise? If Al doesn't lead river, Brian needs to overbet the pot AND get called just to make it +Ev. The way to beat guys like Al is by valuebetting them relentlessly and giving up the fight if they show aggression back.

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    RyckyRych's Avatar
    RyckyRych is offline Retired Micro Grinder
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    He would have to guarantee that he'd get the other guy's entire stack if he hit the boat. All of it, every time. If so, then he can call. Would a paired board be enough to make this guy fold his nut straight even a little of the time?
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    RyckyRych's Avatar
    RyckyRych is offline Retired Micro Grinder
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    Even if he never folds his straight, can you get his entire stack into the middle on the river? If he bets you'd have to shove and he'd need to call every time. Does he do that?
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    Default Immediate odds vs. implied odds

    Glad to see the boys have it covered. With four outs he actually has less than a 10% chance to hit. So he needs slightly better than 9:1.
    Better stack him every time. And you already know he has a jack, but is he that much of a station if the board pairs? If he is, can you send me his address?

    Besides, this decision should have already been made on the flop. Does 10-8 really want to see a 10 appear on the turn?

  6. #6
    bambini's Avatar
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    Default Immediate odds vs. implied odds

    Sorry, my bad. The T came on the flop, 7 came on the turn: Brian flopped 2-pair and Al flopped an open ender.

    Thanks for the input guys. For the record, I was in the "it was a good fold" camp.
    "Never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city" - Coach Finstock, Teen Wolf

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