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Thread: Dealing with a bad run ...

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    buckeye35447 is offline Junior Member
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    Default Dealing with a bad run ...

    I play live $1/2 NLH at the local casino that opened up at the beginning of October. I won 8 of the 12 sessions I had there for an overall $1300 gain.

    Now in September, I've lost 8 of 11 for a total loss of $1600.

    Most games are soft with a almost everyone trying to just limp in all the time. I do play a wide range of hands since no one ever wants to raise; but I don't take it too far if I know I'm beat. I do bluff, but only if I think the player is really weak or the board isn't threatening.

    It seems however that I win a lot of small/medium pots with continuation bets and playing middle and top pair. But then I lose big/huge pots when I get a monster to non-stop stupid play. Example from yesterday ...

    I was on button, had 4 limpers in addition to small/big blind behind me. I had 22 so I raised to $10 Only one of the limpers called. Flop = Kc Qs 2d rainbow. Player checks, so I raised to $25 (about $30 pot). He calls. Turn, Js. He bets $35, I come over the top to $80. He thinks for a min and then just calls. River, Ac. He bets $50 into a pot thats well over $200 so I had to call. He shows Kc10d. Runner Runner straight.

    It seems like crap like that continues to happen time after time recently. I had a hand where I had KK under the gun, I raised to $17 cause I didn't want callers, instead, I got 6 of the 9 remaining players called.

    I get top 2pair vs turned set, top pair w/ good kicker vs rivered two pair, etc.

    I don't know what to do ... I've continued to take cooler after cooler after cooler this month. Should I just give up cause I'm missing something that I should be doing? Should I just stick with it in hopes that the percentages start to even out? Change up my game? Chase more? Anything will help. I would consider myself definitely well above average against the people I've been playing against at my casino, but if you guys think differently please tell me cause I can take it. I'm just sick of getting rivered and coolered by inferior players that just donk off chips on draws and 3/4/5 outers. I know this because that take those chips they win vs me, and then throw them back away to everyone else except me. thanks. sorry for the ranting just don't know what to do.

  2. #2
    J_Verschueren's Avatar
    J_Verschueren is offline They call me "J"
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    Ok, there's gonna be some tough love in this post, for which I apologise in advance. At Pokerology there is a strong belief that anyone who is participating in a poker forum and posting hands wants to improve, so we strive hard to answer correctly and respectfully. In contrast to forums like 2+2 and my home forum (pokerclub.be) where you would just get laughed at.

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeye35447 View Post
    I play live $1/2 NLH at the local casino that opened up at the beginning of October. I won 8 of the 12 sessions I had there for an overall $1300 gain.

    Now in September, I've lost 8 of 11 for a total loss of $1600.

    Most games are soft with a almost everyone trying to just limp in all the time. I do play a wide range of hands since no one ever wants to raise; but I don't take it too far if I know I'm beat. I do bluff, but only if I think the player is really weak or the board isn't threatening.
    Too much of a generalisation already. It is entirely possible some pretty sharp cookies are sitting in this game and are disguising themselves by acting "as the Romans do" (cfr. "When in Rome, act as the Romans do"). You need to look out for that.

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeye35447 View Post
    It seems however that I win a lot of small/medium pots with continuation bets and playing middle and top pair.
    That's good, you need to pick up "orphan" pots.

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeye35447 View Post
    But then I lose big/huge pots when I get a monster to non-stop stupid play. Example from yesterday ...

    I was on button, had 4 limpers in addition to small/big blind behind me. I had 22 so I raised to $10 Only one of the limpers called. Flop = Kc Qs 2d rainbow. Player checks, so I raised to $25 (about $30 pot). He calls. Turn, Js. He bets $35, I come over the top to $80. He thinks for a min and then just calls. River, Ac. He bets $50 into a pot thats well over $200 so I had to call. He shows Kc10d. Runner Runner straight.
    That's a horrible example of "running bad"... you butchered that one. Seriously, no-one considers himself good enough to raise 4 limpers w/ pocket deuces. Not even Durrr would do this in your situation (even though you did have position). Deuces are a speculative hand, so speculate. You love overcallers in this spot. No need to reduce the field. Any flop is going to put overcards on the board (it can't come 222), so play cautiously. Small pairs don't play well in raised pots, because they're vulnerable to both flops and redraws.

    On this particular flop, however, you played your hand correctly. It hits many hands which might pay you off and you want to price out draws which might beat you on the turn, so your bet was good.

    However, you then drop the ball on the turn. The Js co÷rdinates the board, so you've got two choices when he bets (which at least indicates a strong draw.... only the most stupid players donk into a pre-flop raiser/c-better without some sort of back-up to the nuts). Imo. your only options are to flat (and fold to a co÷rdinating river, like an ace) or to raise a decent amount (which I prefer). Counting along to what you've provided, villain bets $35 into about $80. Which is an ok bet for him to make, given that he might have the best hand + an OESD. If you call that bet knowing you beat any pair hand and want to raise to price out straight and flush draws, you need to raise near pot, so your bet should be, at least, $150. By making it $45 more, you're pricing villain in, because he might have the best hand and he's getting straight odds on his draw. When this river hits (putting 4-to-a-straight on board) you're a chump for paying off any bet. Yes, you're getting 4:1 on your call, but, personally, on such a co÷rdinated board, at these stakes, I'm not putting any more money in unless I'm getting over 10:1. Otherwise, the odds of villain being on a bluff are just too remote.

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeye35447 View Post
    It seems like crap like that continues to happen time after time recently. I had a hand where I had KK under the gun, I raised to $17 cause I didn't want callers, instead, I got 6 of the 9 remaining players called.

    I get top 2pair vs turned set, top pair w/ good kicker vs rivered two pair, etc.
    There is no reason to overraise w/ premiums because a) if you do it consistently it turns your hand face-up. And b) you want people to make mistakes against you by calling w/ less than stellar hands which you're unlikely to lose to. Don't get me wrong, the random nature of poker can make it seem as if this sort of hand never wins, but this is a fallacy. The point is to make people pay to outdraw you when you get dealt one of those hands. Which means you play them like any other hand you might play, given your position. Use standard raise sizes regardless of your intention or observant opponants will pin you down.

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeye35447 View Post
    I don't know what to do ... I've continued to take cooler after cooler after cooler this month.
    They're not all coolers. Being a better player does not authorise you to play inferior hands in tricky situations. This is because donks have a built-in defense against that: they just call, regardless of the strenght of their hand, the board texture or what you might have. Your hand is no consideration in evaluating their hand. So, put villain on a range and consider how you might continue if you had lost you mind, then you might profit maximally form their behaviour.

    Meanwhile, seriously, don't put yourself in spots where a calling station might actually beat you.

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeye35447 View Post
    Should I just give up cause I'm missing something that I should be doing? Should I just stick with it in hopes that the percentages start to even out? Change up my game? Chase more? Anything will help.
    You should just migrate towards what is generally accepted as winning play, instead of just assuming you have an edge regardless of what you do.

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeye35447 View Post
    I would consider myself definitely well above average against the people I've been playing against at my casino, but if you guys think differently please tell me cause I can take it. I'm just sick of getting rivered and coolered by inferior players that just donk off chips on draws and 3/4/5 outers. I know this because that take those chips they win vs me, and then throw them back away to everyone else except me. thanks. sorry for the ranting just don't know what to do.
    Everybody who takes this game half way seriously does consider himself to be above average. The amount to which their results reflect this is inverse to the amount by which they consider their opponents to be inferiour.

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    buckeye35447 is offline Junior Member
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    Thanks a lot for the information. I apologize again for the ranting there.

    What do you personally do, if anything, when you are in the midst of a bad run? take time off, play less, different level, etc?

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    Queso's Avatar
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    J hit all of the points I wanted to make. Well done, J.

    When I'm running bad, I just keep playing well. It's the only defense and the best revenge. Things will turn around eventually. But make sure you are playing well, and not just justifying yourself. Paying attention to the points J made will help you improve your play.

    Is this at the new Cleveland casino? Or Columbus? I play at Indiana Grand just outside of Indianapolis. Occasionally I've been over to Hollywood Casino near Cincinnati. I'm really looking forward to the new Caesars they're going to open up in Cincy next year.

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    J_Verschueren's Avatar
    J_Verschueren is offline They call me "J"
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    Quote Originally Posted by Queso View Post
    J hit all of the points I wanted to make. Well done, J.
    Thank you, sir.

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeye35447 View Post
    Thanks a lot for the information. I apologize again for the ranting there.

    What do you personally do, if anything, when you are in the midst of a bad run? take time off, play less, different level, etc?
    Don't worry about the rant, sometimes it just gets to be too much to not vent a little. I have a talent for mathematics, especially probability calculations and statistics, and even I am still amazed at the frequency with which crap like that occurs. By chance or design, this game is properly frustrating. The thing to remember is, although individual "bad outcomes" are often very unlikely indeed, in any given situation during a poker hand, there are a lot of them, making them, as a whole, just likely enough for "noticable" streaks of them to occur "naturally" (the correct wording would be "for them to be expected", but none of us really sit down and expect to lose, do we? ).

    As to how I deal with it. Pretty much the same as Q: I keep playing the best I can. I PokerStove hands to remind myself which odds villain bucked and how much I made him pay to do so (I don't count the times where "the worst card in the deck" resulted in me being forced to pay off and villain getting a just reward, because that is just too unlikely to make a difference in the long run). But, like I said, sometimes one gets the wind knocked out of oneself too much and further action is required. This usually consists of insta-quitting the game I'm in (the only kind of "cut-loss" I'll take) and taking a break (usually a few days) by playing another format. If sit&go's/tourneys are getting my goat, I'll play cash and vice versa.
    Last edited by J_Verschueren; Dec 2nd, 2012 at 03:59 AM. Reason: clarity

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    bambini's Avatar
    bambini is offline Senior Member
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    It could be a bad run, but I wonder if there is an underlying issue around how you're viewing your opponents.

    J elegantly covered the technical aspects of your example hand, but from reading your description the thing that really jumped out was that you appear to have doggedly stuck to your hand and assumed your opponent had junk.

    Putting myself in your shoes, when your opponent donked the turn, alarm bells would have been ringing loud and clear. I'm assuming that your opponent is more of a check-or-call kinda guy, so the fact that he bet out is highly unusual. At that point the range I would have put him on would have narrowed considerably and I would be starting to
    question just how strong my hand was. Once the river came I would have probably folded.

    Remember, strong play is not just about steamrolling your opponents. Sometimes the most profitable play is to fold.

    It's easy to get committed to a hand when we flop something decent. It's also easy to be overly dismissive of players if we feel we are stronger than them. I wonder if a point for future development might be to play around with spotting your opponents betting tells and trying to think about what they might be thinking.
    "Never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city" - Coach Finstock, Teen Wolf

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    RyckyRych's Avatar
    RyckyRych is offline Retired Micro Grinder
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    All I can add is simply:

    MDFR

    Well done, everyone.
    I do a new thing now. Hidden Content

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