Super-Turbo SNG Hand

[RyckyRych]

Thought this might be a fun one to quickly share. No HH for this one so I'll type it out.

6-max super-turbo SNG on Carbon (Merge Network). One player has already busted, this is the second or third hand in. Blinds are 50/100 (yeah, they start high!). Top two get paid, 70/30 ratio.

HJ (1500 chips): fold
CO (1500): fold
B (1500): shoves all-in
SB (3000): calls
BB (1500): You have AQo. Call or fold, and why?

[Jalopy]

Hmmm...this one feels very close. I think the shover's range can be very wide where he stands to grow his stack by 10% if the blinds fold. I also think that the SB may realized this and could decide to call wide, he can easily take the risk since he has already doubled. I think that we could call and potentially have a marginal equity edge but we could also be crushed. The question as I see it is: do we want to risk a marginal edge for a possible triple up? The blinds are already quite large and only getting larger but I think I nit-up here and fold

[J_Verschueren]

The absense of a sizable side pot makes this a fold for me.

[Tim]

Do we know what the SB hand on the previous hand when he doubled up?

I'd be tempted to call since it's a fast structure and winning gives you 50% of the chips in play.

[RyckyRych]

MERGE_GAME #4134645400001: Holdem NL Tournament 10/01/2011 17:34:52
Table Bumblebee Room - Super Turbo, 41346416 (Tournament: Bumblebee Room - Super Turbo, 41346416 Buy-In: $0+$0.00)
Seat 1: tywash1257 ($1,500.00 in chips)
Seat 2: Pedrofish ($1,500.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: ZZWrathchild ($1,450.00 in chips)
Seat 4: System500 ($1,400.00 in chips)
Seat 5: RyckyRych ($1,500.00 in chips)
Seat 6: Cruzel31 ($1,500.00 in chips)
ZZWrathchild: Post SB $50.00
System500: Post BB $100.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RyckyRych [6c 5s]
RyckyRych: Fold
Cruzel31: Call $100.00
tywash1257: Fold
Pedrofish: Fold
ZZWrathchild: Fold
System500: Check
*** FLOP *** [5d 4c 3s]
System500: Check
Cruzel31: Check
*** TURN *** [8h]
System500: Bet $100.00
Cruzel31: Raise $200.00
System500: Call $100.00
*** RIVER *** [3c]
System500: Allin $1,200.00
Cruzel31: Allin $1,200.00
*** SUMMARY ***
System500: Shows [3d 9h]
Cruzel31: Shows [9s 9c]
System500: wins $3,050.00

[bpastermack]

I call that first hand. We could very easily be going against 9,9 and A,10 or 99 and 10,10 The only hands that give you bad equity are AA, AK, KK, and QQ. Any other hand would be behind against you or a 50/50 flop at worst. I'll take 50/50 all day in a 3 person race and my big blind already in. That's a pretty small range of hands.

[Jalopy]

Any other hand would be behind against you or a 50/50 flop at worst. I'll take 50/50 all day in a 3 person race and my big blind already in.

I did a little stoving and I widened the ranges you mentioned and even against wider ranges our equity is only our fair share at around 33%. Against one player our equity would be closer to 50% but the third player gets a portion too.

The ranges I used were:
Button: 22+,A5s+,KJs,A5o+,KJo
Small Blind: 22+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQo

Equity worked out to: Button - 30%, Small Blind - 37%, Us - 32%

Yes, where our bb is in the middle we could be just a smidge into +EV but I'm not sure that the reward is worth going out 66% of the time.

[RyckyRych]

This is a fold.

Remember that in SNGs there is always a bubble factor at work so straight pot odds have to be adjusted. ICM is in play at all times. Here, while what we would stand to gain is plenty, its not quite worth the risk to be calling with AQo:

ICM Nash Calculator Results

Now, if you thinking that the B and SB are on much wider ranges, then AQo might come into play. As it stands now we'd need a bit more to take both hands on.

[RyckyRych]

BTW, one thing that would lean us a little more toward calling would be what Tim brought up, we'd have half the chips in play with 4 left. Assuming we know how the use that leverage effectively (I like to think I do) and also the fact that our opponents probably are not ICM-aware, we could add in some future equity from having that leverage. If I thought both these guys were a bit wider in their ranges I might let this other factor sway me enough to call here. In this case I didn't believe that to be true and folded.

FTR, B had A8o and SB had AJo.

[bpastermack]

I did a little stoving and I widened the ranges you mentioned and even against wider ranges our equity is only our fair share at around 33%. Against one player our equity would be closer to 50% but the third player gets a portion too.

The ranges I used were:
Button: 22+,A5s+,KJs,A5o+,KJo
Small Blind: 22+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQo

Equity worked out to: Button - 30%, Small Blind - 37%, Us - 32%

Yes, where our bb is in the middle we could be just a smidge into +EV but I'm not sure that the reward is worth going out 66% of the time.

Be patient with me cause I don't know all of the terms here, but I can think of all sorts of expected combinations here that give me close to 50% on this. For instance if they both have a pair smaller than QQ you are close to 50%. Or if one has a pair smaller and the other has Ace lower kicker, then it adds 3 outs that only matter if an Ace hits. So I guess it would depend on what I think these guys call and shove ranges are?

Although I forgot about the bubble factor here like Ryck mentioned. Some of it might depend on how good I think the other players are too. If I feel like I can live to fight another day, and get plenty of +EV out of them in the future, then I'd always rather be the one shoving than the one calling after a shove and a caller.