As some of you might know (or not), my main online poker game are 6-handed, turbo, double-or-nothing sit&go's. Over my first 1k games (the equivalent of 70k hands) I posted an ROI of about 12%, so I figured I must be doing some things right, but, recently, results have been disappointing.
Ok, so I am running into a much stronger range of hands than could be expected short handed and, yes, I am being set up/coolered and people are hitting 5-outers on me like it's going out of style, but: for a downturn of results to be of this magnitude (17BI) and breath (200+ games), I must be doing some things wrong.
So, since Sit 'N Go Power Tools has folded and I can't use this software anymore, tonight I put some of my hands through the ICM/Nash calculator over at holdemresources.net and was amazed to find one of my "sit&go-assumptions" was wrong. Namely, I figured that the larger portion of one's stack the blinds and antes represented, the more justified one was to take a risk in order to pick them up. In particular, I thought "any two"-ships from the button or SB as the shorty on the bubble would be profitable if the blinds and antes represented between 1/3rd and half of my remaining stack. Not so, apparently. On two seperate occasions, I shipped any two from the button w/ < 10BBs (and I do mean "any two": 52o and 73o) where my actual shipping ranges, according to the calculator, were 24% and 26%... whoops!!!
Obviously, villain doesn't know this and I hardly play any hands through the early stages. So one would think one's ships would get some credit, but, at this site, most people seem to use a special version of the client software, where it takes navigating through 20 menus and doing a handstand to find the "Fold" option, so I have to make sure "profitable" shipping spots are actually profitable.
Lesson learned, no more assuming and making a habit of (manually) putting hands through a calculator to get a better feel for situations.


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). I like the fact I'm forced to make plays and folds which go against my nature.

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