downswing...

[a_ntemage]

how long is a fixed limit downswing supposed to last? like 3000 hands? and how much am i expected to lose in terms of bb's? im just talking on an average

[RyckyRych]

As long as it wants to. Or, as long as your mind wants to see one.

I've lamented on downswings myself many times. I've come to realize that they are not really so defined.

I'm sure I can find lots of downswings in my PT3 database, all I have to do is mess with the start and end dates. Considering that I have shown a soild profit over my career you could say I've been on an upswing from day one, despite the fact that I am on a downswing from my career high.

Then again I'm up over the last 10 months, though with greatly reduced volume. So am I on an upswing or a downswing?

You make the call.

[Jalopy]

I think my longest FL downswing has been about 10k hands or so. I'll try to remember to check later for you.

Here is a cool little tool I found online...a variance simulator. Very interesting with some stats on downswings and such. I don't know how accurate it is but it is interesting to see just how much variance can play a role in your results.

ev++ Poker Tools :: Poker Variance Simulator

[Jalopy]

I managed to remember to check my results...

Out of 70k hands of limit, my longest downswing was 5k hands for 325 BBs (big bets). My only other notable downswing was about 3k hands for about 240 BBs. Other than that there are no real major downward trends.

It sounds pretty good but the problem is that the downswings always begin when I try to move up to the .50/1 stakes (my highest I've reached) so when I look at the graph in terms of $$$ instead of BBs the downswings are...disheartening.