What are the odds?

[bambini]

I was playing a home cash game last weekend. I had a flush draw on the turn with KsTs. I had raised pre flop, and on both streets and narrowed the field to heads up. My opponent had smooth called me to this point and based on my reads I had her on small spades.

The river came: 8s. I knew we both had a flush, but I figured my K high flush had her beat. I shoved and she called and then turned over 4s5s, giving her a straight flush. Ouch.

I reckon I made the right moves and would do the same in similar circumstances, but I got wondering about odds. I know the odds of getting a straight flush in Holdem (about 1:70000), but does anyone know the odds of getting a straight flush by the river if you are dealt suited connectors?

[RyckyRych]

I want to say 1,080:1 but I am not completely sure.

[Tim]

I know the odds of getting a straight flush in Holdem (about 1:70000), but does anyone know the odds of getting a straight flush by the river if you are dealt suited connectors?

That's the odds for a 5-card poker hand, not from a choice of 7-cards.... which is about 1:3000 (roughly) for a straight flush. Obviously the odds are going to be lower if you're starting out with suited connectors, but I don't know what they would be. Rycky is probably quite close with his estimate.

Then again, I don't do maths.

[bambini]

Thanks for the figures dudes! All in all, a pretty unlikely event I guess.

[RyckyRych]

I wouldn't use sleep worrying about it anyway. :)

[J_Verschueren]

I wouldn't use sleep worrying about it anyway. :)

After a post like that, I think you could use some sleep.

[jsuperman]

Hi, i just came across the post, and i realize it's old but as it's quite interesting, I'd thought I'd chuck in my 2 cents here.

If you had put your opponent on definitely 2 spades at this point, the odds of him have 5s6s is actually more like 2.7%, cause you would eliminate the odds of any other cards. If you had put him on small spades only, those odds would go up probably by close to about 5.5-8% depending on how many of a q j you would eliminate.

That being said, that's only the odds in that situation, not the odds of getting a straight flush, I was bored and decided to calculate

[bambini]

Huh. Hadn't thought of it that way. Nevertheless, i think the odds supported my decision. 95% chance of having her beat :)