How many hands?

[Tango]

Hiya guys. How many hands do you think you need to play before you know if you're on the right track?? I've played 5k this month so far and have been doing okay but nothin to brag about just yet (you did say for me to let you know ).

[malfunctioning]

I have logged almost 70k this year. But to answer your question, I don't think it is the amount of hands that will tell you that. I think it's more the amount of money you are winning/loosing.
If you are looking for some hand history to base your decision on, you need as many as you can get...I would say no less then 20k hands played for a starting point.

[Tango]

Whoa 70k and we're still in January!

I'm doing okay but am not sure how you know if your really doing okay or whether it's just luck. I've not won much but I've not lost a fortune either so that says I'm not totally bad at this game. 20k you say! So at this rate i've got a while to go before i get my answer.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by malfunctioning

I don't think it is the amount of hands that will tell you that. I think it's more the amount of money you are winning/losing.

I disagree with this point. I mean, let's say someone says "I won $500 from poker this month". But what if they sat and played just 10 hands in a $5/$10 game, and got lucky? How much they won (or lost) doesn't indicate if they're on "the right track", IMO.

As for how many hands? I think 5k hands is definetly not enough of a sample. 10k might give you some indication, but 20k-30k would be better.

[malfunctioning]

Originally Posted by Tim

I disagree with this point. I mean, let's say someone says "I won $500 from poker this month". But what if they sat and played just 10 hands in a $5/$10 game, and got lucky? How much they won (or lost) doesn't indicate if they're on "the right track", IMO.

I agree with that tim. But in tango's case with 5k hands down, even a small loss or win can indicate which way the table may be leaning. He/she should be getting a feel for whats going on by that point.

[Tim]

I think it's important to not be results orientated, and 5k hands isn't much of a sample. Variance hasn't had a chance to kick in. He could have played terribly and got lucky. He could have played superbly, made all the right decisions, but got unlucky. I think you need to concentrate on playing your best poker and wait for an overall analysis until you play a lot more hands.

[RyckyRych]

I've seen in other source that even 100k of hands might be too small a sample to be definitive. It can certainly give you a solid idea but nothing is really going to be foolproof.

However I would think once you've logged 100k of cash-game hands I'd would think you'd have enough to be confident that your results for the next 100k would be fairly close... enough to give you an idea that you are on the right track.

Then again, variance is a fickle thing.

[Tango]

100k! At that rate I'd have to play for 18 months

I think I'll wait till I've got a few more hands but not 100k (not saying it's not right though).

[TheCol]

I have never even looked at how many hands Ive played. Im affraid to look. Is there a place you can look on Fulltilt to see how many hands youve played?

[Tim]

Originally Posted by TheCol

I have never even looked at how many hands Ive played. Im affraid to look. Is there a place you can look on Fulltilt to see how many hands youve played?

I know they have a new hand history tool, which I think is in the beta stage. But you could always email them and ask. I know if you email PokerStars they will provide the information. They'll even run reports for you if you ask how many times you've been dealt aces, and stuff like that. I don't think FTP will do that, but they should tell you how many hands you've played.