As poker players we should all be familiar with probability. After all it is the underpinning of the game and permits us to know what is a good bet. The most often used reason for utilizing probability in poker is to answer the question… do the pot odds being offered warrant pursuing our draw? Many poker players are math fanatics while others have a general feel for the game and know approximately what their correct drawing odds should total.

While probability may well be the underpinning of successful poker, do you use or think of probability in every day life? Probability is more than knowing what the odds are to make your flush. Probability is the numerical assessment of the likelihood of an event occurring. If you absolutely know an event will not occur, it has a zero probability of happening. Conversely, if you absolutely know that an event will occur, it has a probability of one hundred percent. Everything else is somewhere between those two parameters but can be quantified numerically. This assessment is our way to attempt to define the indefinable.

Many times people are in awe of unusual coincidences but aren’t they mathematically measurable? Yes they are and in this article we’ll examine a few coincidences and put them into probability perspective. One fairly well known coincidence revolves around people in a group having a common birthday. If you get a group of twenty three people together more than half the time you will find two people with the same exact birthday. Does this surprise you? Many people find this astounding because they reason that there are 365 days in a year and once you know the first person’s birthday, then the second person still has 364 days that won’t match and the third person has 363 non matching days. So how can this proposition occur more than fifty percent of the time with a group of twenty three or more participants?

The mathematics involve aggregation which, in the case of the birthday problem, becomes aggregated coincidence. I will not spend three paragraphs walking you through the math which has been recorded many times (if you’re interested in the math then read Wolfram Mathworld) but I will let you in on the secret of why this problem is not nearly as astonishing as it first may seem. Aggregation can take place in many ways. In the birthday riddle, the question is not … will someone else within the group of twenty three people match your birthday but rather will any two people within the group have matching birthdays? This distinction makes a huge difference.

Similar to the way the birthday problem is viewed is how some poker players view drawing to an inside straight in hold’em. While it is true that once you flop an inside straight the odds against making it are about 5-to-1. However, those are the odds if you see (and pay) for both the turn card and the river card. Some players use the 5-to-1 odds to convince themselves to call the turn and when they don’t hit, and the odds for making the straight with only one card to come jumps to 11-to-1, they fold. Just as matching a specific birthday versus having any two match… our poker hero should be using the one card to go odds instead of an aggregation which only fools him into believing his bet on the turn was a good one.

Another interesting element of probability theory revolves around what is called the Inspection Paradox. Let’s imagine that you live in New York City near a subway station that you use to commute to work each day. The Transit Authority states that a train stops at your station every fifteen minutes. You make the assumption that you arrive, on average, in the middle of the interval between trains, so that although you will have to wait shorter or longer, over the long haul you should only, on average, have to wait seven and a half minutes.

While your assumption seems logical, in reality you almost always wait longer. How can that be if the average is seven and a half minutes? Let’s inspect the paradox to understand it. The reality of the train schedule is that sometimes a train may arrive in only five minutes and in other situations it may take twenty minutes or more. The paradox is that the probability of you arriving in the middle of a long interval is greater than you arriving in the middle of a short interval. This means that when you leave your house the average time you will have to wait is seven and a half minutes but the reality, once you get there, is your wait will be longer. This may be similar to knowing that a wired pair will flop a set nearly twelve percent of the time… unless you are the one holding the pair. At least it seems that way!

There are another group of coincidences that occur and prompt the saying of “Wow, it’s a small world.” Have you ever been to a business conference, traveling on a plane or even sitting at a poker table full of strangers? I know that reading this article on Pokerology.com that the last part of the question would elicit a positive response. While participating in one of these endeavors, you begin to chat with a total stranger and learn that his father went to school with your father or his sister knows your cousin or some other link to the two of you which you find to be amazing.

Actually, it turns out that these type of coincidences are similar to the birthday problem. The difference is there is only one person instead of a group of twenty three to which the coincidence needs to occur. So now we have one person but the elements of coincidence are almost infinite. The element that helps promote these coincidences and make them less spectacular than they first appear is that you are interacting with a stranger with built in connections. If you’re at a business conference you share some similarities in background just as you would as a plane traveler or a poker player. Of course, the more gregarious you are the higher the percentage becomes that you will discover a coincidence. If you are shy and reserved and tend not to interact with strangers, then it becomes more difficult to be amazed by how small a world it really is.

Man has always been fascinated by probability and chance. Events that appear to be paradoxes are sometimes amazing, always entertaining and make great fodder for the raconteur. Who doesn’t enjoy a tale of a coincidence that makes you shake your head in awe? However, once you put probability theory to work and analyze these coincidences, they begin to lose their awe inspiring essence.

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April 15th 2011, which has become known as ‘Black Friday’ to the United States poker playing community, changed the poker landscape for the foreseeable future. The Department of Justice’s crackdown on the top online poker sites and the subsequent barring of American play caused more than a ripple through the legions of United States poker players. Well, there is always live play for Americans and the positives and negatives of each format will be the focus of this article. Players who are new to live public cardrooms will need to make adjustments.

I realize that many poker players regularly played both internet and live poker but there is an enormous contingent of online poker players who have rarely or never played in live public games for a variety of reasons. These reasons would include being underage, not having a live venue in their geographic area, feeling uncomfortable playing live poker and a host of other reasons. Let’s take a look at the myriad of differences which will face online poker players who must now begin playing live poker or focus their energies and bankrolls elsewhere. Some of these differences will be perceived as negatives while some, I believe, are positive.

Stakes

Online poker players who reveled in the ability to play micro stakes will not have a similar option in cardrooms across America. They will have to step up to the “Big Leagues” now which start with dollars not cents. Many will never make that step and just seek out like minded friends and set up home games for their poker outlet. Although I was referring to cash games, this same limitation applies to small stake tournaments which was a major draw for the online poker sites.

Multi-Tabling:

One game at a time in casinos and cardrooms… sorry! Many online poker players would play several tables at the same time. They learned that you could increase your profit by playing tighter/more optimally and winning more through volume while lowering risk. Some of these action junkies will absolutely hate being permitted to play just one game at a time. They will have to get used to it but there are also several positives such as studying your opponents when not involved in a hand.

Speed

Speed goes hand in hand with multi-tabling. There is no question that online poker is a lot faster in terms of hands per hour. This element has both its upsides and downsides but for players who have only played online poker, the live version will seem to move with the speed of a glacier. You will need to adapt to the slower pace and not become bored and begin to lower your starting hand values or your crossover to live play will become a costly one.

Length of sessions

One beauty of online poker is the ability to sit down and play for fifteen minutes in the comfort of your own home. While you may still play a fifteen minute session in a live venue, you need to make a conscious effort to go to the cardroom, possibly need to wait for an open seat, buy your chips and settle into your seat. Of course the flip side of this equation is that you won’t be able to find a $1.00 entry fee tournament with 10,000 players which could take a full day or longer to finish.

The anonymity factor

Everyone has heard of using a “poker face” and the value it can bring to many endeavors outside of poker such as during negotiations. Well, you don’t need to control your body language when playing on the internet… nobody can see you! You don’t even need to get dressed… you’re just an anonymous player sitting at a virtual table. Poker tells will become a whole new subject for newcomers to live play. Not only looking for them but making sure you’re not telegraphing your own intentions to your opponents.

Some, less emotionally stable, online poker players also seemed to enjoy unleashing epithet laced rants in the chat box. They will need to learn some proper decorum or they could incur mounting dental expenses. When you are actually sitting at a table with real people, some degree of interpersonal skills will be required. So leave the pajamas at home and be prepared to at least be civil.

Keeping track of the pot

The wonders of technology… the online poker player merely needed to look at his screen to see the total of the pot to determine the pot odds for the current bet. Those players will need to learn the art of keeping track of the pot. It is really not that difficult but it does take some discipline and paying attention.

Expenses

I mentioned that the micro stake players would not have the same spread of games to choose from and need to significantly move up. There are other major impacts relative to expenses moving to live play. You will need to travel to the game which will require gas money, bus fare or even just wearing out foot wear more rapidly. Onliners don’t toke the dealers which is expected in live play. While tossing the dealer a buck as you rake in a nice pot doesn’t seem like too much… do the math at the end of the year and you’ll realize your largess adds up quickly.

String raises

If you’ve never played live public poker you may not be familiar with the term string raise. A string raise occurs when your raise is not done in one complete fluid motion. As an example, you put enough chips toward the pot to call the bet and then go back to your stack and take additional chips to raise. The reason this is considered to be illegal is the fact that in the moment between appearing to be calling the bet and now raising, you may glean information from your opponents’ reactions – another nuance of live poker that just doesn’t come up in online play. The best way to avoid this faux pas is to announce your actions verbally. If your intent is to raise the bet simply state, “I raise”.

Handling your cards and chips

Moving to a live play venue will require you to handle and be responsible for your cards and your chips. They will no longer be virtual requiring you to just hit buttons. There are some casinos which have introduced monitors around the playing table and have in effect created live play with virtual dealers, cards and chips. Those outlets are very much in the minority and in my opinion should stay that way. I enjoy handling my cards and riffling my chips, thank you very much! On that note, your opponents will pick up on your ability or lack thereof relative to how you handle your cards and chips. That is not to say you need to be able to expertly riffle (interweaving two stacks of five or ten chips making them into one stack of ten or twenty chips) your chips not to appear to be a rookie… but it doesn’t hurt either.

Conclusion

Personally I’ve always enjoyed live play more than internet but I’m one of those who was playing poker long before the internet even came along much less when online poker made its introduction. If this change forces some to actually venture into a cardroom and begin playing live, I think they’ll come to realize how much they were missing. I believe the group of online poker players who will be effected most drastically will be those that do not live within close range to live public games. To those players who have not been a part of a private home game, I suggest you reach out to friends and coworkers and think about starting one.

The next most affected group will be the micro stake players. There just won’t be anything close to what they have become comfortable with regarding stakes. That being said allow me to offer an encouraging word. If you worked hard to become a winning micro stakes player, you may well find a target rich environment in the lower stake live games. Invest a $100 and find out! The worst that can happen is you get spanked and decide to go back to your favorite online poker site which just banned you from playing for real money and play for “play money” which is pretty close to micro stakes anyway!

Black Friday certainly hurt US poker and we haven’t seen all of the unintended consequences as yet. As an example, one has to wonder how large the opening field at the World Series of Poker will be since the largest contributor of players were satellite winners from the biggest online poker sites. While this focus by the US Department of Justice has disrupted the poker community, the game will go on. I encourage the millions of United States online players to step out and begin playing in the cardrooms of America. Shuffle up and deal… for real!

Related posts:

1. Beginners Guide to Playing Live Poker
2. Micro-Limit Online Poker – Part I
3. Micro-Limit Online Poker – Part II

Hold’em strategies continue to evolve and catch the fancy of some players and are dismissed by others. One such strategy is “Floating” which means calling with a weak hand in position with the express intention of pushing your opponent off his hand on a subsequent street. It is certainly not new… I honestly do not know who coined the term float but the strategy has been around since they invented the game, but then someone put a name on it and once poker popularity exploded due to “The Moneymaker Syndrome” it became a sexy move in some quarters. Sexy is cool but there are downsides to this little piece of “Fancy Play Syndrome”. That would be the “Sinking” part of this article’s title.

Today let’s examine the upsides and downsides of this popular poker strategy. The float is based upon the knowledge that most pre-flop hands do not improve on the flop and, therefore, you should be able to take advantage of your opponent not improving even when you have nothing, since you have position. The key ingredient of the strategy is your belief that your opponent has a weak holding or a weak constitution. If he has a hand and is trapping, this can be a very expensive mistake. The backbone of this play relies on your hand and opponent reading skills. I think this play has lost a lot of its shine as its popularity has soared and has been overused and abused. It is beginning to achieve the same status as the button raise and we all know how much credibility goes with the majority of button raises.

How can we put some teeth back into this solid poker strategy? First and foremost, do not use it indiscriminately but choose your situations wisely. Let’s take a look at the key elements of successfully floating an opponent and counter strategies to use against it.

Assessing Your Opponent

Your opponent must be properly assessed as weak for this to be a viable play. While weak is relative you must believe he does not have the heart to call a significant bet or raise. Aside from knowing your competition, the texture of the board is a critical dimension in assessing the probability that your opponent is weak. Also, try not to put your opponent on a single hand and become too rigid to move off that assessment. Many a stack has been lost attempting to float an opponent who… Just must have A-K, only to find out he was holding a quality pair. Very often A-K and big pairs are played in a very similar fashion.

Aggressive players who like to bully the table and stake out their dominance are my favorite targets to float. I base that on the belief that if they are jumping in or raising an inordinateamount of the time, they very well may be getting out of line and playing marginal hands. If you believe another player is very tight and he raises from under the gun, why would you ever try a float against him when, in all likelihood, he has the goods? As I am fond of saying… give such an opponent credit not your chips. You’ll find it to be a lot cheaper in the long run.

Frequency

As with all of poker, to become predictable is to become a losing player, especially against all but the weakest, non observant opponents. I would liken floating to bluffing in terms of the proper frequency of use. Either of these two poker strategies can be very successful when used at an appropriate time, in the correct situation against the proper opponent. When either of them is overused your competition catches on and you, in essence, paint a bull’s-eye on your forehead. When that happens the stack you had hoped to acquire becomes larger with the addition of your chips.

Countering the Float

As in any counter strategy, you first need to identify who may be getting out of line with this ploy. You can drop back when holding a strong hand and become seemingly passive by betting out and then calling and check/calling the turn and the river. There are some risks inherent with this counter poker strategy in allowing the floater to overtake you but I believe most floaters don’t have much with which to overtake you anyway. At the showdown, they realize they have been cooked in their own juices.

If you’re not fortunate enough to be holding a solid hand but believe a float is in play, then you can bet the flop and check raise the turn. This ploy also has some risk as the target could actually have a real hand if you misdiagnosed his actions. All of poker is risk/reward related so you need to believe your opponent is on a float for this to work. Unfortunately, we all know there are no money back guarantees so have some solid reasoning behind your decision.

Conclusion

The float has always been around even before we had this fancy name for it. I’m sure Johnny Moss used it and just thought of it as stealin’ those dumb country boy’s chips. Floating should be part of everyone’s no-limit arsenal but used with the same discretion as bluffing and blind stealing. If used judiciously, it becomes a major positive to your game. If overused or not well thought out, it can become a major leak. Sparingly used, it can be a real moneymaker… overused it can be a real chip burner!

May the flop be with you!

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What could be more fun than scamming friends out of a few coins of the realm by outsmarting them with some proposition bets concerning fifty-two pasteboards? You might consider this a little sneaky and cynical but if you feel really bad after taking their money, you can always give it back or pick up the bar tab. I’ll leave that decision up to you but I’d like to share a few card proposition bets you can offer your friends. These propositions appear, on the surface, to be offering your friends the edge. That, of course, is not true and is the essence of a proposition bet.

The Two Deck Turnover

As the name implies, you will need two standard decks of playing cards that will be shuffled and placed next to one another. In fact, let your mark … er, I mean friend, do the shuffling so he will know this is on the square. Tell your friend (or soon to be ex-friend) that you will turn over a card from each deck at the same time and offer to bet even money that at some point the exact same card of suit and rank will appear at the same time. If, as an example, two deuce of clubs appear on the same turn, you will win and if there is no match after all fifty two cards are turned, then your friend wins.

Intuitively, most people will believe that it is highly unlikely that two identical cards would occupy the same position in two randomly shuffled decks. They would further believe that you would need some odds in order to win hence even money sounds like a good deal. Actually, you have way the best of it at about a 26 percent edge. Casinos would love to have customers willing to play against that type of edge.

Five Card Face Up Draw Poker

Many unsuspecting poker players believe this offer sounds like a pretty good deal. Have your friend shuffle a deck of cards and then fan them out face up so you can both see all the cards. Now offer to play him a hand of five card draw poker in which you both will draw five cards initially and then replace as many cards as you like. Since the deck is face up, you will both see what the other draws and here is the real hook… tell him he will win even if he just ties your hand (suits do not have any rank) and you will allow him to go after you so he can see what you’ve drawn.

The part of the prop of allowing him to win, even if he only ties you normally hooks them. Since you’re allowing him to go after you and suits have no rank, he will reason that the best hand you can make is a royal flush and he can just make a royal flush in a different suit, tie you and win the wager! Once he accepts this wager, you proceed to draw five cards allowing, as offered, your friend to see what you draw and react accordingly. This prop is a sure fire winner… you can’t lose if you use the following strategy.

Draw all four tens and any other card. Having done this, your opponent will either draw four Jacks, Queens, Kings, Aces or a straight flush. Notice that the highest straight flush he can draw is to the nine, as you have taken all four of the tens. At this point, he will have you beat and possibly be feeling smug. The smug feeling will be short lived, I can assure you.

It is now your turn to draw and you will throw away three of the tens along with whatever other card you initially took. You now take the appropriate cards to build the highest straight flush you can. If your opponent took four Aces, you build a straight flush to the King. If he took four Kings, then you build a straight flush to the Queen and so on. If he drew a straight flush which, as I said earlier, could only be as high as a nine, then you can make a royal flush. He simply cannot overtake you since you have removed all of the tens from the deck.

Allowing your friend to go second seems to pave the way for him to either beat you or at least tie you while, in actuality, sealing his fate. Your more astute buddies may figure this out before stepping into the trap but many just can’t get away from what seems like such a good deal.

The Paint Card Cut

Here is another proposition bet that will get action from friends that enjoy a gamble. Offer a friend to inspect and then shuffle up a standard deck of playing cards. Now ask that he separate it into three piles and offer a wager of even money that at least one of the three cards he cuts to is a paint card… either a Jack, Queen or King. The normal reaction from friends that know their way around a deck of cards is for them to begin to attempt to calculate the odds. You can just about hear the gears grinding as they reason that there are a total of twelve paint cards which is less than a quarter of the total deck which would equate to one in four. Since you are offering only three tries to get at least one paint card, the odds would be against you so even money seems like a good deal.

Remember this… if it seems to be too good to be true, it usually is! That would describe this proposition as well. While this one isn’t a lock like the last one, you do have an edge of exactly 5-to-4 in your favor. While you won’t win this one every time, in the long run you’ll be on the plus side of it.

The Paint Card Turnover

This one is good for a chuckle and I wouldn’t try it with someone who does not have a sense of humor. Once again, you have a friend shuffle up a deck and place it on the bar. Tell him you will alternate turning over cards and you will bet him that he will turn over a paint card before you. Offer to go first so you could have the first opportunity to lose. Once he agrees you both take turns lifting a card off the deck and placing it face up on the bar.

The trick to this prop is that each time you take a card off the deck you lift it high enough to determine if it is a picture card or not before turning it over. If your friend turns over a paint card first, fine you win and collect your money. If, however, you get a picture card, don’t turn it over but place it face down on the side and pick another card which, if it isn’t a paint, you can turn over. Almost 100 percent of the time your friend will say, “Hey” and will reach down and turn over the card you placed on the side face down. You can then say, “See, I told you I would not turn over a paint card first.” Remember I prefaced this prop with the advice to pick your victim carefully!

Conclusion

While some of these props are locks in your favor, others have an element of chance so they are not sure fire winners each and every time. However, the odds are in your favor so think of yourself as the casino operator who depends upon volume to make sure he wins. If you use these props often enough, you will be assured a profit. You should always allow your friend to shuffle or, even better, to supply his own cards so you do not fall under suspicion of using a set up deck. If they’re going to lose, let them know they received a fair shake. Good luck in amassing a profit and possibly losing a few friends! Better yet, have fun and pick up the bar tab… that way everyone wins!

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When I first started playing poker, all of my games were of the private variety which I would guess was the same for about ninety nine percent of new players who started out ‘back in the day’. I’m sure with the advent of online poker that percentage has changed dramatically. Today, we are going to ignore online poker and examine the differences between playing poker in private games at someone’s home or in clubs versus playing poker in public cardrooms or casinos. There are advantages as well as disadvantages to each venue. Let’s first take a look at some of the upsides to playing in home or private games.

Home & Private Games Upsides

Social Interaction

While poker home games need to constantly recruit new players in order to sustain themselves the core players usually know one another well. There is a high degree of camaraderie and the social aspect is a key part of any home game. While serious poker may well be played, there is also a very definite social atmosphere including telling jokes and the inevitable teasing and jousting with one another. Laughs, a good time and poker … an ideal combination for the recreational player.

Rakes and Tokes

Many home games ask for some participation in funding the cost of snacks and drinks but most do not have a rake or expect the dealer to be toked. After all, in a game where the deal rotates around the table, everyone has his chance in the ‘box’. Some regular home games rotate their venue and each player is required to host. Then the cost of the night falls on the host but in the long run it all evens out.

Knowing Player Tendencies

Poker home games, some of which go on for decades, have the same core players at every game. This fact can be a huge advantage to the serious, observant student of the game. Knowing your competition so well can provide you with information to make solid decisions. Over the years I have played in many poker home games and have always been amazed at the number of regular participants that don’t seem to file this kind of information away for future use. Remember, I referenced serious, observant students of the game, not all participants.

Goals

Many players in home games are not focused, hard core players striving to make a profit but are there for the aforementioned social aspects and enjoyment of playing cards with their friends. If they win, great, but if the lose, they consider it a small price to pay for the enjoyment of the evening. This, of course, depends upon the stakes which are being played.

Home & Private Games Downsides

Lack of Choice

Even though many poker home games are played as dealer’s choice, that means you are only assured of playing your game of choice once every round. The group’s choice of playing stakes may not be yours either but as they say … it may be the only game in town.

Legality Issues

You may reside in a location that considers playing poker for money to be illegal. Most home players do not worry much about this aspect since they are playing in their own or a friend’s home. I read with amazement some time ago where there was a police raid on a senior citizens home where the residents had instituted a $.05 and $.10 poker game in their clubhouse. I’m predisposed to support poker but even if you are anti poker, wouldn’t you think the police would have more important tasks than breaking up a nickel and dime poker game being played by a group of octogenarians?

Safety Issues

The safety of poker home games is another issue that most players do not concern themselves with. This also can be a factor of how high the stakes are and how many strangers are allowed in. A word of advice … if you’re uncomfortable in a new private game for whatever reason … leave!

Cheating

Unbelievable as it may sound, cheating is more prevalent in private poker games than in public cardrooms. I have a plaque on my game room wall which reads Trust everyone but always cut the cards. I believe that is sound advice coupled with always remaining observant and as cited above, if you’re uncomfortable in a new private game for whatever reason… leave!

These upsides and downsides to playing in home and private poker games are not meant to be all inclusive but to highlight the most important ones. Now let’s take a brief look at the advantages of playing in a legal public venue.

Public Poker

Availability

While poker home game players pine all week waiting for their Friday night poker fix, public cardroom games are usually available twenty four hours a day, seven days a week. The game is always there just waiting for you to arrive!

Coming and Going

Since the game is always there and you’re not necessarily playing with friends and family, you can quit when you want. You can play a short poker session or a long one… your choice. You can also perform what could get you ostracized in a home game… the ‘hit and run‘. Catch lightning in a bottle for an hour, rack up and leave to come back another day. Instead of hearing your friends grumble all you’ll hear is, “Seat open on table six.”

The bulk of the remaining advantages and disadvantages of public poker essentially are the mirror image of the subjects covered under home and private games. On a personal note, before I moved some ten years ago, my poker playing time was probably about ninety percent home games based upon my area of residence. That has changed in the last decade to be one hundred percent public poker. I must say, I miss the old home games with their camaraderie and mix of unique poker games. I guess you just can’t have everything!

Related posts:

1. Adjusting from Online Poker to Live Poker
2. The Care & Maintenance of the Home Game

When it comes to poker, I’ve often written that knowledge is power and guessers are losers – and while I do adhere to those two dictums, let’s face it … sometimes you have to guess. Does that make you a loser? Gosh I hope not as I find myself being forced to guess on a regular basis. Hopefully your guesses are not what falls into the category of Wild Ass Guesses but are of the informed variety. Since poker is a game of incomplete information you are forced to make guesses often. What is my opponent holding? Is his continuation bet just that or is he semi bluffing or value betting? Can I effectively thin the field with a raise now? The list of questions and therefore decisions or guesses goes on and on. The one thing we normally find out fairly quickly is if our poker decisions/guesses produce a positive result or not.

When things are going well and you’re on a streak of wins, many poker players don’t even believe they are guessing. They just feel like they are in the zone and are invincible. We’ve all felt that wondering exhilaration but the euphoria it brings with it can be dangerous in not managed properly. On the other hand, when things are going poorly, many poker players begin to second guess themselves and their ability since their decisions/guesses all seem to be wrong. It is these two scenarios which can be very vexing to some. The quintessential question becomes… when our actions result in a bad outcome, are they wrong? Well, not necessarily.

Let’s look at a fairly common scenario. Imagine finding yourself heads up on the river holding a fairly mediocre hand. Your opponent makes a pot size bet giving you 2-to-1 on a call. You only have a mediocre hand but have observed this player and believe from his past actions that there is at least a fifty percent chance he is trying to buy the pot. Your belief is further supported by the two hearts on the flop that never were joined by a third one. You decide to call and this opponent shows down a very good hand to take the pot. There is no question that your decision/guess did not pan out and your penalty was losing a pot size bet. Here is one key fact to help keep you on track and it is to not equate bad results with bad decisions.

All dedicated students of the game know that a key element to success is paying attention and evaluating your opponents’ tendencies. If you are making a truly informed, well thought out, analytically competent, odds in your favor guess then accept the result and move on. We all know that poker is about making good decisions, not winning the most pots. There is a major dichotomy between results and decision making that is the essence of poker. However, there is also a slippery slope involved if you’re not analyzing situations, decisions and guesses well.

How many times have you made poor decisions/guesses and prevailed? If you’re capable of knowing the difference then those “lucky guesses” or as pointed out earlier… Wild Ass Guesses should not be attributed to skill. These situations of winning when just guessing can introduce confirmation bias and that can really take its toll on a player. A less informed player might begin to think… “Boy, am I hot stuff… I just took down three pots in a row based upon my incredible reads. I’m on fire and can beat this competition like a drum.”

This same player will have incredible difficulty in dealing with the reverse scenario. “How can I be losing?” this player will lament when his decisions/guesses are not spot on. This bemoaning the reality of poker and the confusion as to what can possibly be going so wrong can really get in a weaker player’s head and cause the downward spiral to accelerate. The key here is to become decision focused not results focused. When a good decision does not produce the desired result, don’t beat yourself up. What good can that do? Questioning the quality of your decisions or guesses is valuable. This can prevent you from veering off the course of good, solid poker playing while kicking yourself in the bum for a bad result can only be self destructive.

As poker players grow and become stronger, they often find themselves making more mistakes than in their weaker playing days. This should be true of all players. Do you know why? Can you guess? It is because, as you become a better player, you will become more aggressive and bet or raise more often than check and call. In essence, you will increase the opportunities to be wrong. That’s OK… you will also be increasing the opportunities to be right. The obvious key to this dynamic is to make the right decisions or guesses pay more than the wrong ones cost. Then at the end of the day… well you can do the math!

The critical concept in this odd effect of making more wrong decisions the better you become is to not allow the negative results of incorrect decisions effect future hands. Notice I said incorrect and not wrong as there is a big difference. If you are making wrong decisions, your poker game needs help. What you must do however is come to grips with making incorrect decisions as it is just part of the game. If you continue to make informed, mathematically correct decisions using all the tools such as pot odds and implied odds, then shake off the incorrect decisions when they occur and continue to move forward.

The one essential aspect in poker, as in all of life, is to learn something from the decisions which do not turn out as you had hoped. That something should be to recognize whether the decision or guess was just incorrect or if it was wrong. Add that to your play book and your growth curve as a poker player should escalate.

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The Prince, is the name of a famous book written by Niccolo Machiavelli which has been studied for its insights for centuries. Originally written in 1513 and circulated among his friends the work was not published until 1532, five years after Machiavelli’s death. Generations of politicians have either lauded or scorned the cynical approach outlined by Machiavelli in his famous work. Since he was not alive to interact with the debate relative to his true intentions, we are left to our own interpretations. His legacy is the introduction of the word Machiavellianism to our culture which has come to mean the use of fallacious and extremely cunning tactics in the realm of politics.

At this juncture some readers may be thinking, so what does any of this have to do with poker? A fair question and the answer is… a whole hell of a lot. Are not the tactics and strategy for much of poker surrounded by deceit and cunning? Well, Machiavelli may well be a master we can all learn from to improve our poker playing results and round out a few other rough edges in the process. I don’t imagine Machiavelli played poker but I’m certain he would have been a force to be reckoned with on the green felt.

Si guarda al fine is one of the most famous passages from The Prince – which translates to… one judges by the result. It’s this passage that has become known to imply that the end justifies the means. Certainly that has become a debate for the ages in the political arena but as poker players we can all relate to the literal translation of one judges by the result. Are we winning or losing? One judges by the result. Keeping meticulous records of your session results is important but many players get caught up in their short term monetary results and many times to their detriment.

One judges by the result. Well, if I’m not advocating judging your wins and losses obsessively then exactly what should we be judging? In a word the answer is decisions. Players that have been at this process for a while recognize that due to the vagaries of the game any individual session result doesn’t mean too much. If today’s result was a loss… sorry, so what, that’s poker! If today’s result was a win… good for you, congratulations… don’t spend it all in one place! Poker is a game of wins and losses and must be viewed in the long term, not by individual sessions. The key to long term positive results is good, solid decision making which is never allowed to be skewed by emotion but remains grounded in logic and poker savvy.

Even though one judges by the result is true and necessary, it must be viewed in the long run. A prevalent behavior to viewing results in the short run can be seen by struggling poker players opening up their games in a misguided attempt to recoup recent losses. This can also occur within an individual session that is not going as originally envisioned. Less disciplined players, when losing and not possessing the wherewithall to recognize that it is the long run that counts, have been know to turn a losing session into a marathon in an attempt to get even for that session. This is self destructive behavior – I know this for a fact as I’ve done it. Have you? If you can honestly respond in the negative, I would venture that you have not played very long or possess an enviable control over negative emotions. Here’s the deal … unless you’re planning to quit playing poker forever after your current session ends and since you’re on Pokerology.com reading this article, my bet is you’ll be playing this game until you take your last breath. Then poker must be viewed as one long, continuous session with occasional breaks. Once you realize there is no current session but rather a continuous session with breaks, you will free yourself from the urge to move into marathon mode to escape a loss. The monetary result is not important. It is the quality of your decision making. One member of our poker forum group is fond of saying, “Make decisions, f**k results” to emphasize this concept and RyckyRych… you’re absolutely spot on!

While Si guarda al fine… one judges by the result is a riveting quote and very true, these words written almost five hundred years ago need to be put into perspective. The perspective for our poker playing is to make sure we are judging the most meaningful aspect of our game lest we run the risk of veering off the path to ultimate success. I believe we should heed Machiavelli’s words and judge by the result while making certain that we are judging the most important criteria and that would be the quality of our decision making. May the flop be with you!

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Many live poker cardrooms and casinos offer promotions to help encourage traffic at their venues. Most of these promotions can actually change the way the game of poker is optimally played. There are also game changers that individuals can make to change the dynamics such as posting straddles. Today I’d like to review the more common game changers to encourage you to focus on just how they may alter what normally would be considered solid play. Make sure you’re aware of how some poker players will adapt their game plan when participating in one of these hybrid poker games because as the title infers they are “Game Changers”.

Bad Beat Jackpots

Bad beat jackpots are normally funded by the poker players themselves through an additional rake or drop. Many times they can become quite large and attract all kinds of players who are only in the game in hopes of hitting or participating in a bad beat hand. Normally a bad beat requires, at a minimum, aces full of tens to be beaten. Also, both cards from one’s hand must be used. Obviously, the rules change from venue to venue but what I’ve outlined is typical. A typical payout would be fifty percent of the pool going to the loser of the hand, while forty percent would go to the winner. The balance of ten percent would be shared equally by all other active poker players and is called a table share. These percentages, just as the criteria for qualifying for the jackpot, are flexible depending on the venue.

A poker game that is subject to a bad beat jackpot can change when the jackpot grows large enough to entice players that would not normally play the game in question. Sets are now frequently slow played in hopes of turning them into quads, players from higher stake games, who are usually stronger, may begin playing in the jackpot game until the jackpot is hit and many players will usually play any hand that represents jackpot potential, such as any pocket pair. All of a sudden the focus is not on playing the game of hold’em well but playing in a manner which will increase the odds of hitting a jackpot. That’s all well and good as long as you realize that your competition may begin playing very differently when there is no jackpot involved.

High Hand Promotions

These promotions award a player with a fixed prize ($50 as an example) for getting dealt four of a kind or a straight flush. Some poker venues award a significantly higher reward for a royal flush. These promotions come and go and are usually prevalent in the smaller stake poker games. The management feels it is a small price to pay in order to help keep players filling their chairs and contributing to the drop.

Aces Cracked Wins a Rack

This is another normally low stake “Reel ‘em in” promotion run in smaller cardrooms. A typical scenario would be a $2-$4 limit game which would be played with one dollar chips. If you are dealt pocket aces and wind up getting them cracked, you receive a rack of one dollar chips equaling one hundred dollars. Of course limit hold’em $2-$4 pots don’t come near a hundred dollars so you can see that players holding pocket aces will not raise to thin the field as they want as many opponents as possible to help beat them. The value of pocket aces goes way up as you will either win the pot or a rack of chips. Many times these games are populated by players who are participating mainly in the hope of getting their pocket aces cracked while passing time.

Kill Games

To the uninitiated, kill games are normally a limit venue game changer which stipulates that when a player wins two pots in a row he must post a double live blind. Some cardrooms mandate that the pots need to be of a certain size while others rule that any two pots in a row qualify. There are also half kill games which only increase the stakes by 50 percent. The main effect is increasing the stakes and this dynamic can cause several changes in the game. First, some players are moved out of their comfort zone which can be exploited by observant bullies. Other players love to see the stakes doubled and open up their game significantly and raise liberally in hopes of dragging a big pot.

Straddles

Straddles come in several sizes, shapes and colors and all of them reveal that the player who posts one is somewhat of an action junkie. A straddle is just an additional blind that is double the big blind which is normally posted in what would be the under the gun position. This move has a greater impact in no-limit games as it essentially raises the stakes for the entire hand. In addition, a straddle is normally considered live which means when the betting gets back to the straddler, he may raise as an option just like the big blind would be given. I guess the most famous straddle these days for poker aficionados would be the $1200 straddle on the very popular High Stakes Poker television show. Most straddles I’ve personally witnessed live are quite a bit smaller. I guess that’s because I don’t play in games where the normal blinds are $300 and $600.

There is also a Mississippi Straddle which is posted on the button and the action then starts with the small blind. This straddle has been gaining popularity in several locations so if you haven’t seen it yet, it may well be headed to your cardroom in the near future. It has the advantage for the straddler to further empower the position of the button.

Whatever the form of straddling – it essentially is raising the stakes and can create the same dynamics as outlined in the kill game section. Some players can be moved out of their comfort zone while for others it signals a feeding frenzy which in turn moves the more conservative players even further outside their comfort zone.

Conclusion

The one common thread these “Game Changers” share is that they sometimes encourage certain players to play against the conventional wisdom of sound poker strategy. While that may well have a benefit to the more grounded and serious poker students, it can also create havoc. My advice is to play your best “A” game as if one of these dynamics was not in play and if, in the process, you stumble into a bad beat jackpot or a free rack of chips then good for you. The key is to recognize that some players will be modifying their game to a strategy they believe will increase their chances of exploiting the “Game Changer.” May the flop be with you!

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What is the one common dream that most poker players share? I think it would be safe to say the answer is making the final table at the World Series of Poker’s main event. Well, my dream came true. I found myself not only making the final table but wound up facing down, heads-up, none other than the Godfather of poker, Mr. Doyle “Texas Dolly” Brunson! That’s right, the man himself and your humble Pokerology.com contributor, for all the marbles and the bracelet! It was surreal and I actually had to pinch myself to make sure I wasn’t dreaming. Indeed, a dream come true.

We started heads-up with almost identical chip stacks and I knew I’d have my hands full with all the experience and savvy skills this titan of poker possessed. My strategy was simple. I was planning to use Mr. Brunson’s world famous aggression against him by being patient, waiting for a big hand and then trapping him for all his chips. Sounds easy and straight forward, wouldn’t you say? So, according to plan I sat there and “allowed” Doyle to steal pot after pot as I tossed into the muck a series of 7-2, 9-4, 5-3 and 6-2 junk hands. Finally my patience was rewarded as I looked down to see a beautiful pair of Queens. As I was admiring my ladies, Mr. Brunson fired out a raise. He had just a few more chips than I held and I didn’t want to chase him away so I only made a modest re-raise. Without hesitation, Texas Dolly pushes all-in making me wonder if he was just trying to push me off my hand or if he had me square in his cross hairs with Aces or Kings.

Calling his bet would put me all-in but for some reason I sensed The Godfather was just trying to move me off my hand, and I cannot stand the thought of being bullied, so I made the call. Once I uttered the words, “I call”, a sense of dread overcame me as I feared that my pocket ladies would be overmatched and dominated by Doyle’s Aces or Kings. Since I was all-in, the tournament director instructed us to turn our cards over for all to see and, low and behold, my initial read was correct and all The Man had was the Ace-Jack of hearts. Now, always being the starry eyed optimist, I became absolutely convinced that my ladies would fall victim to a big, fat Ace on the flop. I know you’ve all experienced the dreadful Ace appearing to crush your proud pair of Kings, Queens or Jacks. The Poker Gods really seem to enjoy inflicting the pain associated with that seemingly standard occurrence. Did I mention the part about my being a starry eyed optimist?

The flop delivered a beautiful Ace free Queen, King, King. “Yea of little faith”, I thought to myself acknowledging that I’d flopped Queens full and had The Godfather absolutely crushed. I was elated – my plan had worked and the mission was almost accomplished. The turn produced another King which improved my hand to Kings full but also made me vulnerable to a possible river Ace which would give Doyle Kings full of Aces versus my Kings full of Queens. The tension mounted as the river card was exposed and, thank you Poker Gods, for it was not an Ace, which was my fear. I felt like the Cincinnati Kid or Mike McDermott in the movie Rounders as I thought to myself, “I’ve got him, I’ve got the man!” The river was actually the case King putting all four Kings on the board. What? What just happened? I had two different full houses and a set of quads all in the same hand and I lost to Texas Dolly’s Ace kicker! I was in a state of shock as a low moan escaped my lips and I once again felt like the Cincinnati Kid or Mike McDermott as the sting of this bad beat washes away the euphoria of a moment ago when I was a prohibitive favorite to crush my opponent.

As I sat there absorbing the full impact of having come so close and then losing in such a bizarre manner, a buzzer of some short went off. I looked around for the source of this noise but all I could focus on was Doyle’s huge, smug, self satisfied smile. I sat there looking at the Godfather of Poker with his ghastly smile and listening to that annoying buzz. Then I woke up and realized that annoying buzz was my alarm clock and that my dream come true had been just that, or more accurately, a nightmare.

During my morning routine I was somewhat fixated about my dream and chuckled to myself at how long the odds were to actually arrive at the final table of the World Series and on top of that to be playing heads-up against Doyle Brunson. Infinity would be overstating the odds but, in truth, they would probably be way, way out there. However, even though my experience occurred in dreamland, I felt confident that should I ever be fortunate enough to find myself in that situation when awake, Mr. Brunson would first spot me the nuts and then suck out a winner just to demonstrate why he is The Man. Anyone who could win two World Series of Poker championships with the same starting hand of ten-deuce could certainly turn Ace-Jack suited into quads with a winning kicker… wouldn’t you think?

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Have you ever heard the expression, most people do not plan to fail, however, many people fail to plan? I think it’s a pretty neat adage which could lead us to conclude that if you don’t have a plan you’re not as likely to succeed. This is certainly sage advice for all aspects of our lives including trying to make a profit at playing poker. If, at this point in your poker journey, you still go to your favorite card club or online poker site and do not have a plan, I would suggest you think about the above adage and begin to start planning.

There are legions of players that get the urge to play some poker and rush off to their favorite venue – and that is the extent of their plan. “Hey, I’m really in the mood to play some poker”… is that a plan? If it could even constitute being a plan, I believe you would agree that it isn’t much of one. Many players might at this juncture be thinking, “What is this nut talking about? I know how to play poker so why do I need a plan?” Well, I’m glad you asked – the mere exercise of planning will put you in the right frame of mind to be successful and provide you with a check list to keep you on track.

Let’s kick around what elements would make up a solid plan which could be to your benefit. First and foremost, if your objective is to make a profit from your time invested, number one on your list should be to play your A game and nothing but your A game. If you take your time spent at the poker table seriously, then actually planning to not allow emotion to dictate your play at any point during the session is essential. Here is the secret to planning a poker session – your plan should be made up of key elements you probably are quite familiar with but actually planning to adhere to them and reviewing your “checklist” during your playing time will help you actually stick to them. Knowing and doing is not the same thing!

Other elements of a good poker plan should include clocking your opponents’ skill levels and playing tendencies, observing opponents for tells, remaining aware of the image you are portraying so you can better anticipate opponent reactions, monitoring your emotional state and generally paying close attention to the game. None of these elements are ground breaking ideas but to actually tell yourself that they are part of your plan and need to be adhered to will force you to do just that! Many players, who play in home games, play for the social aspects and enjoy the camaraderie that exists and are not obsessed with turning a profit. That’s fine and you should be able to profit from their inattentiveness. In fact, if you are one of those players that is participating for the banter and snacks and don’t really care if you win or lose a few coins of the realm… that’s OK too. However, if you wish to consistently turn a profit… have a plan!

Another element that some players do not plan for is a loss limit. They plop down in a newly vacated seat and buy in for a rack of chips. If then their fortunes go immediately south through a bad beat or two and they find their initial buy in almost gone, they automatically reach into their pocket to finance another rack or visit the closest ATM in order to reload. That’s fine if it was part of a contingency plan but if they are reloading out of frustration or even desperation in an attempt to get even, they are allowing emotion to dictate a course of action. Remember your plan and not going on tilt should be part of it.

Another solid element to be planning for is to be on the lookout for situations that can be exploited. Situations that should warrant your attention would include being on the button against weak/tight blinds, being in position to isolate a player who regularly comes in with marginal hands and punishing early limpers with large raises to name a few. Remember, good cards come and go but situations arise constantly and the player who is planning to identify them is the player who can successfully exploit them.

One major key to success in poker is to understand that knowing and doing are two distinctly different things. If you have not already been doing so, begin to formulate a plan when you embark on a poker session and then be constantly reviewing it and adhering to it. To plan is to be proactive. To just plop your butt down and wait to see if you are dealt a good hand is to be reactive. Be proactive and always have a plan. I know when you decide to play poker you’re not planning to fail, so make sure you don’t fail to plan. May the flop be with you!

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